Why Do Casinos Give Players An Edge In Video Poker?

All casino gamblers are looking for an edge. In most cases, there is no edge to be had. Online casino games are designed with a built in house edge. This is how the house makes money. Even if the house edge is only one percent, so many thousands of dollars are wagered every day in both live and online casinos that this small advantage leads to huge profits for the casino. Not only that, but the real house edge on most casino games is much higher than one percent.

What’s so Great about Video Poker?

One of the lowest house edge games in Las Vegas and other us casinos is video poker. Your typical full pay Jacks or Better machine returns over 99 cents out of every dollar wagered if played with perfect strategy. In other video poker games, it may even be possible to turn the game into a positive expectation game with a player edge using perfect strategy!

Wouldn't the Casino Go Broke Giving Players an Edge?

How can the casino offer a positive expectation game? It cannot be true, can it? In fact, it is true, but there are a number of factors to keep in mind. In the first place, games with a positive player expectation offer a very small edge, an edge that amounts to about 75 cents won for every $100 wagered. Secondly, these games usually only allow wagering in units of a quarter, meaning it can take a considerable amount of time to wager $100, even playing quickly (remember, you must use perfect strategy, which makes it unlikely you will be able to make instantaneous decisions). Even if you were able to wager $1,000 an hour under these conditions, which is extremely doubtful, you would only make about minimum wage, so it is not really cost effective to do this as a money-making effort.

Still, Why Should the Casino Offer a Game with Any Positive Expectation?

The idea behind these games is to encourage people to get into casino gambling and try other games. Most people are not using perfect strategy anyway, so the casino is still making money from these games, and the value of traffic they bring into the casino far outweighs the cost of giving away a small edge, in the same way that giving bonuses is worthwhile for the casino. You can win a little from video poker, but still, if you wish to become a big winner, you might have to turn to internet poker.

You bet casino games are fun. But of course, not all games are created equal. Certain casino games provide better winning odds than others, some demand more skill, and others are based on luck - lots and lots of luck! But at the end of the gambling day, or the beginning rather, players play the casino games they enjoy most, win or lose. After all, the name of the gambling game is fun, first and foremost.

But enough about healthy approaches to gambling. If you're alive like me and ready to risk your life for some fabulous action, you've come to the right place – the Internet. In fact, there's no better way to spend your time (well, perhaps one) than playing good old casino games. And we say 'old' because most of the games – be it Blackjack, Baccarat, Pai Gow Poker, Keno, Craps, Roulette, or what have you – originated hundreds and hundreds (and hundreds) of years ago.

For instance, Sic Bo, Pai Gow Poker and Keno were all - how should we say - made in China. The game of Craps emanated from ancient Egypt through what must have been a dicey history. Fifteenth-century Italians can claim credit for the prestigious game of Baccarat, and of course 18th-century France gave us the classic favourites Roulette and Blackjack. Merci beaucoup and vivre la France. (Now, if the French government would only allow their French citizens to play their French games over the Internet from the comfort of their own homes equipped with wine cellars.) Where poker originated from is anybody's bet.

While casino games have always enjoyed tremendous popularity in land-based, or so-called 'brick and mortar' gambling establishments, the demand for online casino games is nothing short of phenomenal. We're talking massive. Indeed, what the advent of Internet gambling sites clearly proves is that millions and millions (and millions) of people enjoy playing casino games, either simply for fun or real money. And if you haven’t already heard, the real-money winnings at the top online casinos can be humongous.

The BIG DEAL these days, beyond the free cash bonuses online casinos are anxious to hand you, are all the brand new casino games on offer. Virtually everyday new games are being introduced by online casino site operators. In fact, the latest Slots and Video Poker games are being launched as you are reading this piece, which begs the question, 'Why are you reading this when you can be deriving a whole lot more pleasure playing online casino games from the comfort of your home with perhaps a wine cellar?'

League One Free Betting Tips

Saturday’s tip lost as Lens could only manage a 2-2 draw with Strasbourg,
but I will still be keeping an eye on Lens in the next few games as their
recent form has suggested that they are heading in the right direction and
by still offer a bit of value.

Today I am going into League One and the game between Walsall and Leyton
Orient both sides that are pushing for promotion to the Championship.

Walsall are 4th in the league and are on a current run of 16 games
undefeated since their last League defeat a 2-0 home loss to Southend back
in October. Since that time they have steadily climbed the table.

Form wise over the last 6 games they have won 3 and drawn 3 scoring 10 and
conceding 5 and have an overall home record in the league so far of W5 D6
L3 F18 A14 and it has been 11 games since their last home defeat in any
competition.

Orient the opposition tonight are themselves doing well in the league and
are 7th only 2 points behind Walsall, but there are signs that their form
is dipping and the last 6 games have seen 2 wins 2 draws and 2 defeats
scoring 6 and conceding 8.

Their overall away league record to date reads W5 D3 L6 F16 A23 and their
last 2 away games have seen them lose 4-0 at Notts Forest and 2-0 at
Northampton, indeed you have to go back to November for their last away
win a 1-0 victory over Huddersfield and they have only scored 4 away goals
in the last 7 league games.

Surprisingly their have only been 2 head to head clashes between these
sides in recent times both at Orient’s ground with the host winning both
1-0 once in the LDV Van Trophy and the latest back in August so there are
no real indicators to help us on that front.

Team news from both camps at this early stage is that Walsall's Scott Dann
and Ishmel Demontagnac return after suspension.
The Saddlers hope to have Michael Ricketts available after the on-loan
striker has missed the last four matches with an Achilles problem.

Leyton Orient skipper Stephen Purches (thigh) is in line to start after a
substitute outing at Northampton in the last game and Sean Thornton
(hamstring) limped out of that defeat and is out but Andy Barcham should
play after experiencing no recurrence of a recent head injury.

Given Walsall’s form I think the evens on offer with Boylesport is a good
price for tonight’s encounter and for those who may have a concern over
the number of home games Walsall have drawn (6 out of 14) a saver bet on
the draw at 33/13 with Pinnacle is advised though I personally will be
going for the straight win.

So hopefully a Walsall win will get us back on track,

As ever good luck,

Silverfox.

Wednesday night saw Bordeaux hold on to a 1-0 win against St Etienne to
give me 3 out of 4 winners since I returned from my break.

Never one to rest on my laurels and always aware that you are only as good
as your last winning bet I am staying yet again with the French league
today and following my own advice by backing Lens to beat Strasbourg in
the Ligue One fixture today.

I opposed Lens on Tuesday when they beat Valenciennes as though they had
shown signs of a revival I wanted to see if their away form held up
against a strong home side which it did.

Lens are now up to 16th in the league and in their last home game they
beat champions Lyon 3-0, previously they had beaten Nancy who are in 3rd
place also 3-0 in the league Cup so are definitely heading in the right
direction.. Their home form this season in the league reads W4 D2 L2 F13
A9 and if they continue their improvement on the road they will soon find
themselves in the top 10.

Strasbourg were promoted at the end of last season and are in 14th place
in the league 2 points ahead of Lens going into today’s game. They have a
record on the road this season of 3 D2 L5 F9 A16 though their last away
win was back in October when they beat Lille 3-0 since then they have
picked up 1 point out of a possible 12 away from home and that was in
their last away game at 18th placed Auxerre.

Head to head over the last 10 games favours Lens at home with 3 wins and a
draw in the home matches played during that period, in fact you have to go
back to November 96 to find Strasbourg’s last win at Lens when they picked
up a 2-1 win.

Aug 25, 07 Ligue 1 Racing Strasbourg 2 - 1 RC Lens
Feb 4, 06 Ligue 1 RC Lens 2 - 1 Racing Strasbourg
Sep 18, 05 Ligue 1 Racing Strasbourg 1 - 1 RC Lens
Jan 29, 05 Ligue 1 RC Lens 2 - 1 Racing Strasbourg
Sep 18, 04 Ligue 1 Racing Strasbourg 2 - 2 RC Lens
Jan 31, 04 Ligue 1 RC Lens 2 - 1 Racing Strasbourg
Aug 23, 03 Ligue 1 Racing Strasbourg 0 - 1 RC Lens
Apr 5, 03 Ligue 1 RC Lens 1 - 1 Racing Strasbourg
Nov 9, 02 Ligue 1 Racing Strasbourg 2 - 0 RC Lens
Feb 7, 01 Ligue 1 Racing Strasbourg 1 - 0 RC Lens

Early team news in that Strasbourg will definitely be without African
Nations Cup participants Mamadou Bah and Jacob Mulenga, while Lens are
missing Aruna Dindane and Adama Coulibaly, who are playing in the same
tournament, but defender Marco Ramos should return after suspension.

Extrabet are best price 4/5 a Lens win and generally you can get 5/6 which
in my opinion is a solid enough price on a day when there are to many
short priced favourites and not enough value bets.

So I hope my French tipping ends the week as it started it.

Good luck

Silverfox.

Last night was a mixed bag with Valenciennes losing 2-1 to lens but the
+2.5 goals bet coming in.

As with Clermont on Monday night however a note should be taken to follow
Lens for a while if the price is right. They have now won 3 games on the
trot and look to be putting a run together which should lift them out of
the drop zone and into safety.

On to tonight’s game and again I am staying in France for the game between
2nd placed Bordeaux and 13th placed St Etienne.

Put simply Bordeaux must win tonight if they want to put up a real
challenge to leaders Lyon. 3 points tonight will put them 3 points behind
Lyon and 5 points ahead of 3rd placed Nancy with Bordeaux having to visit
Lyon in early March in what could be a championship decider even at this
stage of the season.

At home in the league so far they have a record of W6 D2 L2 F22 A15 with
the 2 defeats coming against Le Mans (2-1) and Lyon (3-1). Since that
defeat in October Bordeaux are unbeaten in 7 home matches in all
competitions, and they are currently the form side in the league over the
last 6 games with 4 wins and 2 draws.

St Etienne on the other hand are in mid table but if their away record was
anywhere near as good as their home form they would be a lot higher in the
league.

On the road so far they have a record of W1 D2 L8 F8 A20 compared to 7
wins and only 1 loss on their home ground. The only win on their travels
in the league came in October in a 2-0 win at Toulouse and since then they
have taken only 1 point from a possible 15 on their travels.

Form wise over the last 6 matches does not offer any hope for them either
with 2 wins 1 draw and 3 defeats with only 1 goal scored and 6 conceded in
the 3 away matches in that time.

Head to head again favour Bordeaux tonight with 4 wins and a draw in the 5
games played during the 10 match period shown, and you have to go back to
August 2000 for the last time St Etienne managed a goal at Bordeaux’s
ground.

Aug 18, 07 Ligue 1 AS Saint Etienne 0 - 0 Girondins Bordeaux
Apr 22, 07 Ligue 1 AS Saint Etienne 0 - 2 Girondins Bordeaux
Dec 19, 06 Lge Cup Girondins Bordeaux E 1 - 0 E AS Saint Etienne
Nov 25, 06 Ligue 1 Girondins Bordeaux 1 - 0 AS Saint Etienne
Apr 8, 06 Ligue 1 Girondins Bordeaux 0 - 0 AS Saint Etienne
Nov 26, 05 Ligue 1 AS Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Girondins Bordeaux
Mar 12, 05 Ligue 1 Girondins Bordeaux 2 - 0 AS Saint Etienne
Oct 23, 04 Ligue 1 AS Saint Etienne 0 - 0 Girondins Bordeaux
Dec 10, 00 Ligue 1 Girondins Bordeaux 2 - 1 AS Saint Etienne
Aug 19, 00 Ligue 1 AS Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Girondins Bordeaux

Team news is that Bordeaux will be without key midfielder Fernando. The
Brazil international has been ruled out for at least a month with a knee
ligament injury.
Also out is David Jemmali, who has a calf injury, while Marouane Chamakh
and Souleymane Diawara are at the African Nations Cup. Defender Franck
Jurietti is suspended following his sending-off at Le Mans.

St Etienne will be without suspended duo Geoffrey Dernis and Stathis
Tavlaridis while defender Mouhamadou Dabo is a late casualty after going
down with gastroenteritis. Pascal Feindouno, Siaka Tiene and Moustapha
Bayal Sall are also absent as they are away on African Nations Cup duty so
they will be hit harder the Bordeaux due to the African Cup of Nations
call ups.

At 4/6 best price with Ladbrokes Bordeaux look a good bet for tonight’s
clash as I personally had them priced high for a win tonight.

So just the one bet for me tonight but hopefully it will be a profitable one.

Happy punting,

Silverfox.

A good start to the week with Clermont beating Nantes 2-1 on Monday, and
it would be worth popping them into your note book for home games during
the rest of the season especially against top 6 sides when the price is
right.

Tonight I am staying in France and moving up a division to the match
between Valenciennes and Lens.

Valenciennes are currently 6th in the league which is a vast improvement
on last term when they finished I place off the drop zone.

The improvement in form is down in no small part to their home form this
season which reads W8 D2 L0 F20 A3, and in their last 5 home league
matches they have won 4 and drawn 1 with an aggregate score of 11-1 so
they are obviously to be respected on their own turf.

Lens on the other hand have been disappointing in the league and sit 18th
out of 20 which is very disappointing for a side that finished 5th last
year to qualify for the UEFA Cup.

Their away league record is W2 D1 L7 F6 A15with both victories coming
against the sides immediately below them in the league, Metz who are rock
bottom with only 1 win and 8 points from 21 games and Sochaux.

There have only been 3 meetings between these two sides in recent times
with Lens winning home and away last season when they were in much better
form and Valenciennes getting a 0-0 draw at Lens earlier this season.

A note of caution must be put in at this point as Lens have shown signs of
improvement over the last 2 games a 3-0 win in the league Cup against
Nancy was followed up at the weekend with a fine 3-0 win against Lyon,
however both games were at home and until I see signs of an improvement in
their away form I am happy to oppose them tonight.

The team news is that Lens will probably be unchanged for tonight’s clash
provided Milan Bisevac.
the Serbia midfielder can shake off a knock he picked up while
Valenciennes still have concerns over Carlos Sanchez (thigh), Eric Chelle
(quadriceps), Jeovanio (knee), Khaled Kharroubi (ankle) and Yacine Bezzaz
(thigh).

Valenciennes are 10/9 best price with Pinnacle bookmakers to win tonight
and it is a good enough price for me to take.

The other bet tonight will be on the +2.5 goal market. As I stated earlier
Lens scored 3 in the last 2 games whilst Valenciennes conceded 4 to PSG in
the Cup last week and 3 to Marseille at the weekend both away from home so
5/4 generally seems a decent price.

So to recap Valenciennes to get back on track and keep their fine home
record going with a win tonight and +2.5 goals as a saver.

Hopefully both will be profitable, as ever good luck and good punting.

Silverfox.

Back after my break and ready to take on the “old enemy” again I feel
refreshed and confident that the future will be profitable.

For tonight’s tip I am going into the French 2nd division and the clash
between Clermont Foot and Nantes.

Clermont are currently 7th in the league and have a home record so far of
W6 D3 L1 F17 A6. The only loss coming in the first home league game of the
season back in August when Bastia defeated them 3-2, since then they have
put a good run together which sees them on the fringe of the promotion
race.

They are also the form side in the league over the last 6 matches with 3
wins and 3 draws, the 3 home games in that period have all been won with
an aggregate score of 9 goals to 3.

Nantes the opposition tonight are looking to bounce back into Ligue One on
the first attempt after relegation last term and have made a good start in
that quest sitting top of the table after 20 games 2 points ahead of 2nd
placed Le Havre.

Their form on the road in the league reads: W5 D3 L2 F10 A8 but in their
last 6 games they have shown a slight dip in form with a record of W2 D3
L1 F6 A7 and the 3 away games in that period have produced 2 draws and a
loss with no goals scored and 4 conceded though it must be added that all
the goals conceded came in a 4-0 defeat at Boulogne.

The only game between these two sides in recent time came back in August
when the two sides fought out a 2-2 draw at Nantes.

Taking into account all the above facts I am going to err on the side of
caution with my first tip after the break and go for Clermont in the draw
no bet market at 9/10 with Sportingbet. For those newer punters what this
means is if the game ends in a draw your stake is returned.

This is a tough game to call and Nantes are a strong side so the draw
could not be completely ruled out but the draw no bet option fits in with
my revised betting strategy.

The more adventurous may be interested at the 9/5 available for the
Clermont win tonight but I am happy to take the 9/10 more solid option.

As I said earlier the break has helped me to refocus and it is always a
wise thing to do to review your strategy, betting patterns and staking
plans etc to fit in with the ever expanding betting markets that are now
available and as the year progresses I will keep you updated on my
progress.

Good luck as ever,

Silverfox.

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A late Shaun Wright-Phillips goal gave Chelsea a 2-1 victory over Everton
last night and also made my bet a loser.

Since the start of the year my football bets have not been going well so
today I thought I would just pass on a few words of how I deal with
slumps.

Making a living as I do from Sports betting is a job with many highs and
lows and it is how you deal with them that make the difference between
success and failure. For those of you that are experienced punters what I
have to say is probably known to you but to those who are new to punting
it may be a help.

Any gambler who says he is consistently making a profit is either very
lucky or not telling the entire truth. I have been punting for over 30
years and been full time for the last 10. In that time I have overall come
out on top and now make a living from the game but I can still remember
the times when bills were left in order of which service was to be cut off
first.

The one thing I have had in that time is an understanding partner who did
not mind beans on toast 5 times a week!

Seriously gambling on a professional level is not for the faint hearted
and the key to successful gambling is discipline, have a bet bank and
staking plan which whatever happens you stick with.
Never chase a losing day, the beauty of this game is that there is always
another day and you cannot make rational judgements when you are chasing.

When you hit a dry patch stop betting for a while, keep records and look
back on them to when you were in a good run and see what you were doing
then that you may not be doing now.

If you do not have the discipline to stop do not even think about punting,
I know too many people who have lost family and friends as a result of not
being able to stop. Fortunately most bookies allow you to either set
limits on your account or voluntarily ban yourself for a period of time if
you feel you may have a problem, and there are several organisations that
can help if gambling has become a problem.

I do not want to sound like a doom and gloom merchant but I would not be
totally honest if I did not point out the downside of punting, everyone
knows the buzz that is received when a winner comes in, likewise we all
know the feeling when like last night a last minute goal robs you of
victory, and unless you cannot deal with those two contrasting emotions it
is best to stay away.

Having said all that I do feel that punting is a great form of
entertainment and can also be a good way of supplementing your income, but
like most things in life it has to be treated with respect.

To prove I practice what I preach I am going to have a break for a week to
10 days to review my betting strategy and generally recharge my batteries
as I only want to post tips which I have the utmost confidence in, and a
step back will clear my mind and hopefully bring me back with more
winners.

Good luck,

Silverfox.

Manchester United beat Aston Villa on Saturday to make my tip a loser but
what I was most disappointed with was that for the second time in a week
a home side looked happy with a draw, but where Manchester City got a
point at home to Liverpool, Villa lost their chance of progress in the
Cup by displaying in my opinion to negative tactics, and to united`s
credit they got what they deserved.

On to todays choice and it is the Carling Cup Semi Final first leg between
Chelsea and Everton at Stamford Bridge.

Everton will want to atone for their surprise 1-0 home defeat to Oldham in
the Cup on Saturday when they paid the price for not fielding a stronger
side, however it has to be said Oldham thoroughly deserved their win.

Chelsea struggled to an unimpressive 1-0 win at home to Q.P.R. again with
a less then full strength side but did however manage to progress.

Both sides will want to make up for sub standard performances and will
field stronger line ups I am sure.

Chelsea are a difficult side to beat a Stamford Bridge and do not concede
many goals with only 8 being conceded in the league so far.

In this seasons Carling Cup they have so far beaten Hull 4-0 away,
Leicester 4-3 at home thanks to a last minute goal by Frank Lampard and in
the last round overcame Liverpool 2-0.

Everton have had a good season so far if you discount Saturdays result and
David Moyes talented team are still involved in the UEFA Cup as well as
this competition. They are in my opinion still one or two players short
and it will be interesting to see how they cope with the loss of Yakubu
and Yobo as well as the already departed Steven Pienaar as they represent
their respective countries in the African Cup of Nations.

Head to head not surprisingly favours Chelsea at home but it is
interesting to note that Everton have drawn their last two Premier league
games at the Bridge:

Nov 11, 07 Premiership Chelsea FC 1 - 1 Everton FC
May 13, 07 Premiership Chelsea FC 1 - 1 Everton FC
Dec 17, 06 Premiership Everton FC 2 - 3 Chelsea FC
Apr 17, 06 Premiership Chelsea FC 3 - 0 Everton FC
Feb 8, 06 FA Cup Chelsea FC 4 - 1 Everton FC
Jan 28, 06 FA Cup Everton FC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC
Oct 23, 05 Premiership Everton FC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC
Feb 12, 05 Premiership Everton FC 0 - 1 Chelsea FC
Nov 6, 04 Premiership Chelsea FC 1 - 0 Everton FC
Apr 17, 04 Premiership Chelsea FC 0 - 0 Everton FC

Only 3 out of the last 10 games have produced +2.5 goals and given that
this is the first leg and bound to be tight I am going for this as my main
bet. The best price of 0.75 with Sportingbet is good enough for me to get
involved with as the onus will be on Chelsea to take the initiative as
Everton would be happy to keep a clean sheet or draw back to Goodison for
the return leg.

Also of interest Chelsea have only scored more then 2 goals once in the
last 10 games, whilst Everton have only conceded more then 2 goals once in
their last 19 and that was at home to Arsenal when they went down 4-1 in a
game where the score line flattered the Gunners (this coming from a
diehard Gooner!).
Early team news is that Chelsea will be without Didier Drogba, Michael
Essien and Salomon Kalou for the Carling Cup semi-final first leg because
of the African Cup of Nations.

But Mikel John Obi could be available, Ricardo Carvalho returns after a
ban, Ashley Cole is fit again and Petr Cech has an outside chance of being
fit.

As mentioned earlier Everton wanted to play Steven Pienaar but were denied
permission but Joseph Yobo hopes to be fit, while Tim Howard, Tim Cahill
and Phil Neville return but Mikel Arteta is suspended after his sending
off against Arsenal.

The other bet I will have for low stakes tonight is for Joe Cole to be
first goalscorer. He is currently best price 9/1 with Extrabet and
generally 8/1 elsewhere and at those prices has to be worth an interest.
He has been for me one of Chelsea’s most consistent players and with the
absence of Lampard, Shevchenko, Kalou and Drogba the goal scoring options
are limited.

So -2.5 goals and a Joe Cole first goal for me tonight.

Good luck as ever,

Silverfox.

The F.A.Cup 3rd round is one of my favourite weekends of the football
season when the smaller clubs have a chance to take on the giants of the
Premier league.

The game I am going to get involved with today however is the clash
between Aston Villa and Manchester United, two of the leagues big clubs.

Aston Villa under Martin O`Neill are having a great season and sit 7th in
the league, 3 points off a Champions league place. At Villa park this
season they have won 6 drawn 1 and lost 4 scoring 16 and conceding 14
which on first reading may not look too great but three of defeats have
come against top 5 sides in the shape of Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool
and in the Arsenal and Liverpool games in particular they were unlucky not
to get something from those games, also as an Arsenal fan I can honestly
say their second half performance against the gunners was the best by any
side we have faced this season.

The other home lose came in a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Portsmouth who
are becoming away day specialists in the league this season.

Form wise they have won 2 drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 6 scoring 11
and conceding 11 and as the season has gone on they have looked like a
team who are starting to believe in themselves.

Villa’s opponents tonight Manchester United sit 2nd in the league 2 points
of top spot and have played some great football this season though their
last home game against Birmingham showed that their free flowing style
can be stifled.

On the road in the league this season they have won 5 drawn 2 lost 3
scored 15 and conceded 8, and form wise over the last 6 they have won 5
and lost 1 , the defeat coming at West Ham.

Head to head definitely favours Manchester United today as in the last 10
games Villa have won none and indeed you have to go back 20 games and 9
years for Villa’s last win against Manchester United a League Cup tie
which they won 3-0.

Oct 20, 07 Premiership Aston Villa FC 1 - 4 Manchester United
Jan 13, 07 Premiership Manchester United 3 - 1 Aston Villa FC
Jan 7, 07 FA Cup Manchester United 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC
Dec 23, 06 Premiership Aston Villa FC 0 - 3 Manchester United
Dec 17, 05 Premiership Aston Villa FC 0 - 2 Manchester United
Aug 20, 05 Premiership Manchester United 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC
Jan 22, 05 Premiership Manchester United 3 - 1 Aston Villa FC
Dec 28, 04 Premiership Aston Villa FC 0 - 1 Manchester United
May 15, 04 Premiership Aston Villa FC 0 - 2 Manchester United
Dec 6, 03 Premiership Manchester United 4 - 0 Aston Villa FC


Team news will be vital to this match though from first indications both
sides will be taking strong squads to the game and it may be worth waiting
till nearer kick off before placing a bet.

Early team news is that Aston Villa striker John Carew is an injury
doubt with a knee injury. Shaun Maloney could push for a starting place
after Luke Moore spurned two golden chances against Spurs.

Manchester United keeper Edwin van der Sar returns after recovering from a
groin injury, while Wayne Rooney is in the squad following a virus.
Striker Carlos Tevez is doubtful with an ankle injury, while defender Wes
Brown, linked with a January move to Newcastle, is in the squad.

This to me is a fascinating tie and I have been impressed with Villa
lately, on the opposite side of the coin Sir Alex will want a performance
from his side after two below par performances over the Christmas period.

Taking all this into account I am having 2 bets today, firstly Villa to
win at 7/2 on the outright market, this to me is value given the fact that
this competition is Villa’s only hope of silverware this season and for a
team who historically have a good cup record they have gone out 5 of the
last 6 years in the 3rd round and will be eager to change that pattern,
also United have there eyes on larger prizes and they would readily admit
though the cup is important it is 3rd in their wish list of trophies come
the end of May.

The second bet I will have is Villa 21/20 with Bet365 with a +0.5 start on
the Asian Handicap market this would cover me in the event of a draw.

So hopefully Villa will do the business, as I said earlier I am an Arsenal
fan so would prefer Manchester United to stay in the competition so as to
play more games and hopefully tire a few of their payers even more! But
with my professional punters head on I see the value in Villa tonight and
hope they can break that 20 game losing cycle against Man Utd.

Good luck as ever,

Silverfox.

A mixed start to the New Year with Leeds being soundly beaten 3-1 at home
by Oldham yesterday, at least the +2.5 goals bet was a done deal before
half time!

Tonight I am going for Newcastle to beat Manchester City in the
premiership match at St James Park.

Newcastle’s problems have been well documented and Sam Allardyce is under
extreme pressure to keep his job but tonight I feel his side can come
good. They were unlucky to say the least not to come away from Stamford
Bridge at the weekend with a point after the linesman obviously forgot the
offside rule when allowing Kalou`s winner to stand.

They are a Jekyll and Hyde side for sure but they have too much talent in
the squad to be where they are in the league. They currently are 11th in
the table with a home record of won 5 drawn 3 lost 2 scored 16 and
conceded 15, with the 2 defeats coming in successive home games in
November when they lost 4-1 to Portsmouth and 3-0 to Liverpool. Take those
7 goals off their home record and it looks a lot better then at first
glance.

Their form over the last 6 games sums up their season so far with 2 wins 2
draws and 2 defeats scoring 7 and conceding 7.

The opposition tonight Manchester City have been the surprise team in the
Premiership this season sitting 7th, and if the 0-0 draw at home to
Liverpool is anything to go by in their last match Sven has made them hard
to beat, though for me it is not the way football should be played
especially at home.

Form wise they are having a dip with 1 win 4 draws and 1 defeat in the
last 6 games scoring 9 and conceding 8, the 3 away games in that time have
seen 0 wins 2 draws and 1 defeat with 3 goals scored and 4 conceded.
Overall their away record has been poor with 1 win at West Ham on the
opening day of the season to go with 4 draws and 4 defeats.

A win tonight would see City move up to 4th and a draw would take them to
5th but on the evidence of what I saw on Sunday I would be surprised to
see them come away with 3 points.

Head to head over the last 10 games has gone in favour of Newcastle at St
James Park with 4 wins out of the 5 games played in that time with City’s
only success coming in last seasons game when they came away with a 1-0
win.

Sep 29, 07 Premiership Manchester City 3 - 1 Newcastle United
Mar 31, 07 Premiership Newcastle United 0 - 1 Manchester City
Nov 11, 06 Premiership Manchester City 0 - 0 Newcastle United
Feb 1, 06 Premiership Manchester City 3 - 0 Newcastle United
Sep 24, 05 Premiership Newcastle United 1 - 0 Manchester City
Feb 2, 05 Premiership Manchester City 1 - 1 Newcastle United
Oct 24, 04 Premiership Newcastle United 4 - 3 Manchester City
May 1, 04 Premiership Manchester City 1 - 0 Newcastle United
Nov 22, 03 Premiership Newcastle United 3 - 0 Manchester City
Jan 18, 03 Premiership Newcastle United 2 - 0 Manchester City

Early team news is that Newcastle striker Alan Smith is a major doubt as
he recovers from concussion but Michael Owen could return after recovering
from a thigh injury.

Midfielder Joey Barton will not play after being remanded in custody on
charges of common assault and affray.

Manchester City's Brazilian midfielder Elano may find himself on the bench
with fellow countryman Geovanni among the potential replacements.

Michael Johnson is out but Emile Mpenza could return from a muscle problem.

The 5/4 on offer generally about a Newcastle win is enough to tempt me to
go with the home side tonight and I hope that “Big Sam” gets a bit of the
luck coming to him.
If City shows the attacking “flair” they showed at home to Liverpool on
Sunday then the City defenders will be a busy bunch holding of wave after
wave of Newcastle attacks.

So for me just the one bet as the other options are either to close to
call or not good enough value to get involved in.

As ever good luck,

Silverfox.