Carling Cup Semi Final
Manchester United beat Aston Villa on Saturday to make my tip a loser but
what I was most disappointed with was that for the second time in a week
a home side looked happy with a draw, but where Manchester City got a
point at home to Liverpool, Villa lost their chance of progress in the
Cup by displaying in my opinion to negative tactics, and to united`s
credit they got what they deserved.
On to todays choice and it is the Carling Cup Semi Final first leg between
Chelsea and Everton at Stamford Bridge.
Everton will want to atone for their surprise 1-0 home defeat to Oldham in
the Cup on Saturday when they paid the price for not fielding a stronger
side, however it has to be said Oldham thoroughly deserved their win.
Chelsea struggled to an unimpressive 1-0 win at home to Q.P.R. again with
a less then full strength side but did however manage to progress.
Both sides will want to make up for sub standard performances and will
field stronger line ups I am sure.
Chelsea are a difficult side to beat a Stamford Bridge and do not concede
many goals with only 8 being conceded in the league so far.
In this seasons Carling Cup they have so far beaten Hull 4-0 away,
Leicester 4-3 at home thanks to a last minute goal by Frank Lampard and in
the last round overcame Liverpool 2-0.
Everton have had a good season so far if you discount Saturdays result and
David Moyes talented team are still involved in the UEFA Cup as well as
this competition. They are in my opinion still one or two players short
and it will be interesting to see how they cope with the loss of Yakubu
and Yobo as well as the already departed Steven Pienaar as they represent
their respective countries in the African Cup of Nations.
Head to head not surprisingly favours Chelsea at home but it is
interesting to note that Everton have drawn their last two Premier league
games at the Bridge:
Nov 11, 07 Premiership Chelsea FC 1 - 1 Everton FC
May 13, 07 Premiership Chelsea FC 1 - 1 Everton FC
Dec 17, 06 Premiership Everton FC 2 - 3 Chelsea FC
Apr 17, 06 Premiership Chelsea FC 3 - 0 Everton FC
Feb 8, 06 FA Cup Chelsea FC 4 - 1 Everton FC
Jan 28, 06 FA Cup Everton FC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC
Oct 23, 05 Premiership Everton FC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC
Feb 12, 05 Premiership Everton FC 0 - 1 Chelsea FC
Nov 6, 04 Premiership Chelsea FC 1 - 0 Everton FC
Apr 17, 04 Premiership Chelsea FC 0 - 0 Everton FC
Only 3 out of the last 10 games have produced +2.5 goals and given that
this is the first leg and bound to be tight I am going for this as my main
bet. The best price of 0.75 with Sportingbet is good enough for me to get
involved with as the onus will be on Chelsea to take the initiative as
Everton would be happy to keep a clean sheet or draw back to Goodison for
the return leg.
Also of interest Chelsea have only scored more then 2 goals once in the
last 10 games, whilst Everton have only conceded more then 2 goals once in
their last 19 and that was at home to Arsenal when they went down 4-1 in a
game where the score line flattered the Gunners (this coming from a
diehard Gooner!).
Early team news is that Chelsea will be without Didier Drogba, Michael
Essien and Salomon Kalou for the Carling Cup semi-final first leg because
of the African Cup of Nations.
But Mikel John Obi could be available, Ricardo Carvalho returns after a
ban, Ashley Cole is fit again and Petr Cech has an outside chance of being
fit.
As mentioned earlier Everton wanted to play Steven Pienaar but were denied
permission but Joseph Yobo hopes to be fit, while Tim Howard, Tim Cahill
and Phil Neville return but Mikel Arteta is suspended after his sending
off against Arsenal.
The other bet I will have for low stakes tonight is for Joe Cole to be
first goalscorer. He is currently best price 9/1 with Extrabet and
generally 8/1 elsewhere and at those prices has to be worth an interest.
He has been for me one of Chelsea’s most consistent players and with the
absence of Lampard, Shevchenko, Kalou and Drogba the goal scoring options
are limited.
So -2.5 goals and a Joe Cole first goal for me tonight.
Good luck as ever,
Silverfox.
