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In the early hours of Sunday morning the second round of group matches in
the Copa America kick off.

So far the tournament has been a great spectacle with 24 goals in the 6
games so far an average of 4 a game.

The action starts with group A and Venezuela the hosts playing Peru and
Uruguay playing Bolivia.

I am swerving the Venezuela game as i find it to close to call, Peru know
a draw will be good enough to probably see them through to the semi`s with
a game against Bolivia to come, whereas the hosts know a win will take the
pressure off them with a final match against Uruguay to look forward too.

I will be focusing on the Uruguay v. Bolivia match and i will say now my
stakes in this one will be low but i am going for a Uruguay win.

They under performed when they played Peru on the first match and were
deservedly beaten 3-0 so anything less then a win tonight will almost
certainly spell the end to their involvement in the competition.

I for one was extremely disappointed in the first match performance as i
had backed them anti post to reach the final on the grounds that they had
taken a strong squad and had what looked on paper a fairly kind draw to
the semi`s.

I did not see Bolivia draw with Venezuela but reports are that they
performed well, usually away from the altitude of their capital La Paz
they are not such a force.

Bolivia finished bottom of the World Cup Qualifying campaign for Germany
06 and when the 2 sides met Bolivia drew 0-0 at home and lost 5-0 in
Uruguay.

I cannot believe that with players of the calibre of Forlan and Recoba
Uruguay cannot raise their game in what is a must win match for them.

Though the 1/2 best price for a Uruguay win with Expekt is not that
tempting i will also have an investment in the over 2.5 goal market at 3/4
best price again with Expekt hoping the high scoring trend continues, and
finally i`ll also have a play on Recoba scoring at any time in the 90
minute market at best price 9/4 with Bet 365.

The Copa has not been very kind to me this time round and i hopefully will
turn that thread around with these suggestions,but as i said at the
beginning if you play any of these markets keep the stakes low.

I am a great believer of keeping stakes low when you are in a dry patch
and building up slowly when the results turn you`re way which invariably
they do.

So to recap:

Uruguay to beat Bolivia @ best price 1/2 with Expekt

Over 2.5 goals at best price 3/4 with Expekt

Recoba to score anytime in 90 mins @9/4 best price with Bet365

Good luck with what ever you decide.

Silverfox.

Well for 80 minutes last night me, Mrs Fox and several of my cubs were
sitting thinking this punting game is easy,after 87 mins as Chile took a 3
-2 lead we had other ideas!

I have never witnessed a start to a major competition like it,exciting
matches, plenty of goals but a nightmare for us punters.

As a result i am going to leave the matches in group C alone tonight as i
feel Argentina should beat USA and in my opinion Paraguay and Colombia is
to close to call.

So for today i am off to Finland and the game between Haka who are 3rd in
the league and Oulu who are 10th in the 14 team league.

Haka have a home record so far of W2 D2 L1 F4 A3 compared to Oulu`s away
record of W0 D1 L3 F1 A10.

In the last 6 games Haka have only lost once as opposed to Oulu who have
W0 D1 L5 F4 A16 and not surprisingly are bottom of the form league over a
6 match period.

8/15 best price with Stan James may not make us rich but i feel this is a
solid bet in which to get back on track after a couple of setbacks.

I will also be taking Haka with -1 on the Asian handicap at best price
9/10 with Pinnacle.

For those new to punting or not familiar with the more "exotic" bets on
offer an Asian bet is where a handicap is given to both teams.

So if the game finishes 2-0 to Haka the bet wins (2-0 -1 = 1-0).

If however Haka win by only 1 goal i.e. 1-0 or 2-1 etc the bet is deemed a
draw (1-0 -1 = 0-0) and the stake is returned.

If the game ends as a draw the bet is lost.

I hope this helps explain what an Asian bet is and apologies to all those
who know already but i like to think that the punting fraternity is ever
growing and the more we know the more we can take money off those
bookies!!!

Good luck today with whatever you go for and happy punting.

Silverfox.

Well, before I get on to today's selection a quick word about yesterday's choices.

As I said before I never put up a tip I do not back myself and I got "burnt" by Peru's 3-0 win over Uruguay.

On Monday I wrote about my tips for betting to that I should have added there is no such thing as a sure but! I was more confident then usual about Uruguay yesterday and should have known better.

However from reports on the match Peru played very well and look like they could trouble one or two teams as the competition goes on.

Anyway the beauty of this game is that there is always a chance to make amends the next day.

To that end I am staying with the Copa America and have had a look at the game tonight between Ecuador and Chile.

As you may remember Ecuador qualified for the 2006 World Cup where they were eventually knock out by England in round 2.

In the 2 World Cup qualifying ties between the two teams Ecuador won their home leg 2-0 and got a 0-0 draw in Chile on their way to finishing 3rd behind Brazil and Argentina.

Probably the best know Ecuadorian players in the UK are De La Cruz (Reading) and Valencia (Wigan), though Ayovi (El Nacional), Palacios (Depor Quito) and Edison Mendez (PSV) are good players and worth keeping an eye on.

Chile is another one of the regions sides in transition in preparation for their World Cup qualifying campaign.

They do not now have the likes of Ivan Zamorano and Marcelo Salas to provide their goal threat but again have some very talented players such as Gonzalez (Liverpool), Fernandez (Villareal) and Villanueva (Audax Italiano) to call on.

The opening 2 games of the competition saw 7 goals with hosts Venezuela being held by Bolivia in the other game played last night so hopefully that is a sign of good things to come for the rest of the tournament.

I am going for an Ecuador win tonight as I feel they have a more settled all round team as though they are the underdogs in this match at best price 2/1 with several of the leading firms they provide a bit of value, though I will be keeping my stakes low.

The other bet I will have is putting Ecuador in a double with Brazil to beat Mexico tonight.

Though the Brazilians do not have Kaka and Ronaldinho in their ranks, Mexico are also with out some key players as their squad for this tournament contains only 7 players who were runners up to the USA in Sunday's final of the Concacaf Gold Cup.

So to recap:

Ecuador to beat Chile at best price generally 2/1 (Low stakes advised).

Ecuador and Brazil in win double.

Good luck with whatever you go for today, lets hope we can make those bookies a little less richer by the end of it!!

Silverfox

Today sees the start of the Copa America which is taking place in Venezuela.

The likes of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay will fight it out with the
other South American countries as well as Mexico and the USA for the right
to call themselves the regions champions.

Most of the countries have taken full strength squads though Brazil will
be missing the likes of Kaka and Ronaldinho after long club seasons and
the Mexicans and Americans will be sending weakened squads after their
efforts in the CONCACAF Gold Cup which ended at the week end.

The first game of the competition kicks of at 22:00 GMT tonight when
Uruguay and Peru play each other in a group that contains hosts Venezuela
and Bolivia.

Uruguay are my value bet to reach the final as if they win the group they
will play on of the two 3rd place teams from the other groups, this in
effect sees that they avoid the big guns Brazil and Argentina till at
least the semi final stage.

Uruguay have taken an almost full strength squad they have a good keeper
in Carini (Inter Milan) and a good spine to the team with Dario Rodriguez
(Schalke) marshalling the defence, Recoba (Inter) creating in midfield and
Forlan (Villareal) always a threat up front.

Uruguay's opponents today Peru had a bad World Cup qualifying campaign and
are in the middle of re building a side to challenge for qualification for
the World Cup in 2010.

Peru do not have Nobby Solano of Newcastle in their squad since his
retirement from International football but have new Chelsea signing
Claudio Pizarro in their squad along with the talented Jefferson Farfan of
PSV, so they are not to be underestimated.

I am going for a Uruguay win however as I feel they have an all-round
stronger team then Peru and in Forlan they have a world class forward.
They are best price 5/6 with Bet direct compared to Peru's 17/4 and the
draw at 12/5.

I also expect the opening match as in most major tournaments to be a low
scoring affair as generally teams are more scared of losing then going for
the win so I will again try my luck with under 2.5 goals which is
currently best price ¾ with Bet 365.

My final bet in on this game will be a speculative shot on Recoba to be
first goal scorer. At best price 8/1 with Ladbroke it is a better value
bet in my opinion they the shorter prices available on forwards.

Recoba has for me one of the best left foots in football and also takes a
high proportion of Uruguay's free kicks so a small investment might prove
to be worth it.

So to recap:

Uruguay to beat Peru @ best price 5/6 with Bet direct

Under 2.5 goals @ best price ¾ with Bet365

Recoba (Uruguay) first goal scorer at best price 8/1 with Ladbrokes

Good luck and happy punting

Silverfox.

Hope one or two of you got on the USA last night, though not the greatest
of prices a win is still a win!

As i cannot find much to tempt me to part with my hard earned money today
i thought i`d take the chance to put down a few of the "rules" i follow as
a full time punter.

I guess you will have worked out the first one! it is dont bet for the
sake of it!

Since i have been doing this full time i have become more selective on
what i bet on,as there are so many markets it is easy to just look at a
price and think the "bookies have it right i`ll back the favourite"!

This brings me to my second rule which is discipline, i never chase a loss
on a bad day, it is the surest way to losing your bank and getting into
trouble.

As i stated above there are always other days to bet with wide variety of
markets so there really is no need to chase, because as i learnt from
experience chasing a losing day affects your judgement and leads to even
more bad decisions.

Rule three in the Silverfox`s guide to getting rich slowly!! is have a
set amount set aside for your betting, an amount you can afford to lose
and that you can literally gamble with without the risk of the bailiffs
knocking!

This seems obvious at first but i have seen quite a few cases where people
have not managed their bank and lived to regret it.

Rule four is to specialise in a couple of particular fields that you are
interested in. Around 90% of my bets are on football and jumps racing,
these are 2 areas i have followed since a child and though i do not
profess to be an expert in them, i feel i have a slight edge and when i
look at the bookies prices especially on football i can spot a value bet.

Odds compilers usually specialise in the premier leagues of europe and
down to the conference level in the UK and it is seldom they get a price
wrong in that field.

However when it comes to the smaller European leagues and non league sides
there are chances to profit.

This leads me to rule 5 which is always do homework.

I can honestly say i spend hours a day looking at the fixtures for the
day, checking the stats on the teams involved and team news where
available as well as checking form for the jumps meetings that are on.

The more information you can get the more of an edge you can have over the
bookie and the more likely you are to make a profit,which at the end of
the day is what matters.

I hope i have not painted to black a picture as in my experience the
positives far outweigh the negatives and the buzz i get from a winning bet
is still as strong as ever.

I became a full time punter through circumstance as i became ill and have
been unable to work for several years,firstly it became a way of passing
the day but the more i did the more i realised i could make a decent
living from the game, dont get me wrong i am no millionaire! but i have a
roof over my head, money to pay the bills and enough left over to allow
the Mrs to go shopping and leave me in peace for a few hours while she
does what she was born to do (gent`s im sure we all have one like
that!,and ladies i apologise for being sexist!).

Seriously though by following my few simple rules i have managed to earn a
living for myself and also be fortunate enough to do something i really
enjoy.

You all will be happy to know that tomorrow i will be back to posting
tips! Hopefully i can find some more winners, it certainly will not be for
the want of trying.

Good luck and good punting

Silverfox.

Two out of three winning bets ensured another day of profit
yesterday,though the under 2.5 goals bet for the Holland v. Serbia match
was well and truly blown out of the water!

Today see the final of the Concacaf Gold Cup,and as very much expected the
regions two major players the USA and Mexico will contest the final at
Soldier Field,Chicago the same venue that saw the USA win their Semi
Final.

The USA won all three of their group matches before struggling to beat
Panama 2-1 in the quarter final before a slightly more comfortable win
against Canada by the same score in the Semi Final to reach this stage.

Mexico on the other hand have had an indifferent campaign so far,they beat
Cuba 2-1 and Panama 1-0 but lost suprisingly to Honduras 2-1 in their
group matches before struggling to beat Costa Rica 1-0 after extra time
and then suprise team Guadeloupe again 1-0 in their semi final.

Both teams have won this competition 4 times with the USA losing to Mexico
in the finals of 1993 and 1998.

I am going for the USA to reverse this trend today by beating Mexico,they
have played good football throughout without being spectacular and have
the advantage of a home crowd behind them.

The US are best priced 5/4 with Totesport,Stan James and Skybet amongst
others to win in 90 minutes,and as usual i will be having an investment on
the under 2.5 goal market as i expect this to be a tense tight affair
though at best price 7/10 with Bet365 it is a price that will not make us
rich.

So to recap:

USA to beat Mexico at best price 5/4

Under 2.5 goals at best price 7/10

as always good luck.

Silverfox.

Firstly i hope some of you were on the USA game, the combination of USA
win,over 2.5 goals and the correct score bet has put me in Mrs Siverfoxes
good books for a while!

Today sees the final of the European Under 21 final between Holland the
hosts and Serbia.

This is certainly a game of contrasting styles with Holland`s free flowing
football against the technically gifted but more defensive minded Serbs.

Holland rode their luck in the semi final against England and relied on a
stunning goal by Rigters to take the game into extra time and then going
on to win a dramatic penalty shoot out 13-12.

A lot depends on how much that game has taken out of the Dutch team as
Serbia had a much more straightforward 2-0 win against Belgium in their
semi.

I will be going for the Dutch in a very tight game as i believe in
Drenthe,Babel,Maduro and Ritgers they have the players to break down the
Serb defence.

However Holland will have to beware of the dangers of Jankovic and
Milanovic, two players who for me have shown through.

Again i will be going for the under 2.5 goal option as i believe this will
be a tight tense affair where no one will want to make a mistake.

My final bet will be Holland draw no bet as this could well go to extra
time and in that case the pattern of the game may well swing in the Serbs
favour for reasons already stated.

So to recap:

Holland to win in 90 mins @ best price 6/5 with Bet Direct

Holland Draw no bet @ best price 1/2 Boyle Sport and Blue square.

Under 2.5 goals @ best price 3/5 with Sporting Odds.

Good luck and good punting as always.

Silverfox.

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When to give up value



Online poker is a huge fish-pool these days. It's a commonly accepted idea that playing positive EV situations is the way to success. Basic poker strategy is most of the time enough to make someone a winner. All right, so all you have to do is bet your AK against the other guy's 7,2o most of the time and you win. Whenever you have the edge, go for it, whenever the other guy has it, withdraw. This is what winning poker is all about. ( well, actually there's a lot more to it, - blinds play, starting hands, betting, rakeback - but still, this above sentence pretty much sums up the core-concept of the game).



How would you feel if I told you that sometimes this is not the way to go? Sometimes you need to give up positive value. Before you start calling me all sorts of names read on and see what I'm taking about.

Let's suppose you're in the late stages of a poker tournament, pretty close to being ITM. Let's say you're holding a pair, ( 3,3) and your opponent has a Q,K. He is the chip leader at your table though, and he suddenly moves all in. You know the pot odds are in your favor, and it might just be a huge move towards you further advancing in the tourney by significantly increasing your bankroll. What do you do? You fold of course. You want to be in the money and you don't want to use up all your resources on a bet like that, even if it does give you positive EV.



The reason is something that is specific to tournaments: bankroll problems. In a poker tourney, you seldom find yourself adequately bankrolled. One of the most important prerequisites of healthy poker play is being adequately bankrolled. Since your bankroll is most of the time not right for the blinds you play at, in tournaments you have to give up “healthy play” and you have to adapt.

This is why larger bankrolls can dominate so well in tournament play. Being adequately bankrolled is of utmost importance in ring games too. The bankroll that you play with alone can determine whether you're a good player or a losing one. It will swallow variance and it will allow you to act on every single positive EV situation that you encounter. At the day's end, doing just that is the very essence of successful poker play. If you only push your positive EV, you can’t lose in the long run.



Just think about the following scenario: in a 2/4 ring game, one of the players has $20 left. The other guy has $500. Our $20 guy has a pretty good hand which gives him marginal positive EV. The $500 fella raises him exactly $20 though. What should he do? Obviously he should fold, leave the table and move on to some smaller blinds table, where his 20 bucks would be closer to a reasonable bankroll.

The reason for all this, is something every gambler needs and wants to avoid at all cost: Gambler's Ruin.

Gamblers Ruin means that you completely bust out without ever getting a second chance for a comeback. Not only do you lose all your money, but you lose the money you would’ve won provided you kept on playing at some level, and you also lose every chance to ever get back into the game. Gambler's Ruin is the ultimate failure. Avoiding it is worth making some decisions which are contrary to basic poker strategy.



Think about the following example: you make it big playing an online casino and walk away with $100.000. From that day on, you’ll be able to pretty much dominate smaller to middle stakes gambling, and who knows, you might end up making another $100.000 on top of the first one, pretty soon. Then a high roller walks up to you and says; "so you say you're a gambler, right? How about a bet? I'll wager $150.000 against your 100 grand on a coin-flip" The odds are obviously favorable, yet you still shouldn't accept the deal.

There's a 50% chance that you’ll bust out completely. You should definitely take the guy up on the offer if you had $300.000 though.



Don’t make the mistake to play online poker without rakeback!

The football season may have end some time ago for those of us in the UK,
but thankfully for a full time soccer punter like me there is still plenty
of action a round the World to keep me busy and hopefully swell Mrs
Silverfox`s shopping allowance!

Today i am going to have a major interest in the Concacaf Gold Cup semi
final match being played in the early hours of Friday morning between the
USA and Canada.

The Concacaf region contains such teams as Mexico,Costa Rica,Trinidad and
Tobago and El Salvador, so with the greatest of respect to those teams
named not the strongest of federations as is demonstrated by the other
semi final where one of the regions giants Mexico are taking on the
surprise package of the tournament Guadelope a small island in the
Caribbean with until now no real soccer pedigree.

The US are best price 4/7 with Stan James and Skybet to beat Canada and
for me though not the tastiest of prices it is reasonable enough for me to
invest in.

The USA are the host nation of this years event and came through the group
stage with 3 wins against Guatemala,El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago,
scoring 7 and conceding none.

Their quarter final was a tougher affair when they saw of Panama 2-1.

Canada also topped their group with a win against Costa Rica and Haiti
but they suffered a surprise 2-1 defeat in their second group game against
the boys from Guadelope.

Their quarter final was an easier affair when they beat Honduras 3-0.

There are several familiar faces from the premiership in the USA squad
such as Howard (Everton),Bocanegra and Dempsey (Fulham) and Beasley (Man
C) so they do not lack for experience or big game players.

Canada have a few useful players themselves amongst them Paul Stalteri
(Spurs), Ian Hume (Leicester) and DeGuzman (Deportivo) but i feel with the
game being played at Soldier Field,Chicago in front of their own fans the
USA will have the edge.

As opposed to the European under 21 games i am going to go for over 2.5
goals in this match at best price evens with Blue Square and also i will
be having a small investment on 2-1 USA being the correct score at 15/2
again with Blue Square.

So to Summarise:

USA to beat Canada in 90 mins.

Over 2.5 goals.

USA to win 2-1 correct score bet.

Best of luck with whatever you all decide to go for.

Silverfox.

The second set of group games in the European under 21 championships kick
off today with Israel against Belguim and Holland against Portugal.

Though i have enjoyed the technical ability of most of the sides in the
event i am disappointed in the lack of will to win games, the "do not lose
the first game" mentality has shown itself in spades!

The fact that only 2 goals have been scored in the first four games is
disappointing to say the least and hopefully teams will start to open up
now the competition has gotten under way.

As far as the games today are concerned i will be playing both and in both
games i am going for under 2.5 goals as a saver as i cannot see many goals
(unfortunately) in either games.

Firstly Israel take on Belguim.

In the first game Israel played against hosts Holland they defended
bravely and posed a threat with Sahar of Chelsea up front, the fact that
several of the team have played full Internationals goes some way to
proving that they are a side not to be underestimated, indeed they
defeated the very talented French side in a play off to reach these
finals.

Belguim held one of the pre tournament favourites Portugal to a 0-0 draw
in their first match and although i did not see the game, those who i have
spoken to have said they were unlucky not to win.

I feel Belguim just have the edge in this match and with their final game
against hosts Holland in what in effect is a derby match know they have to
win today.

At the time of writing Belguim are best price 5/4 with Boyle Sport and Bet
Direct and i`m tipping them for a narrow win, the main reason for this is
that Belguim to me seem to have more options from the bench whereas Sahar
though he had a good game against Holland was left very isolated at times
and chased to many lost causes.

The second game today has the potential of being a classic with Holland
taking on Portugal.

I was very impressed with several of the Dutch side namely Babel of Ajax
who lead the line well,Maduro a team mate of Babel`s and similarly already
a full international was commanding in midfield and scored the only goal
of the game and last but definitely not least Drenthe who is meant to be a
full back but was forward more times then he was back and who supplied a
constant stream of quality crosses.

To me Drenthe who plays for Feyenoord will be at a major club very soon,
if you get the chance to see him tonight do so he is a box of tricks and
for me the star of the tournament at this early stage.

Team news for Holland is that playmaker Ismailïl Aissati, who aggravated
a knee injury on Sunday is out, his likely replacement will be Otman
Bakkal


Portugal by their own admission were disappointing against Belguim and
will be looking for a much improved performance.

They have everyone with the exception of Ricardo Vaz Te of Bolton
available, and Manchester United`s new signing Nani will hopefully show
why he was worth the fee that they paid for him.

Portugal`s final group game is against Israel and though that is not a
certain win for them, they may feel as long as they avoid defeat tonight a
win against the Israeli`s would be enough to take them through given
Holland`s final game against Belguim.

I am hedging my bets here and going for a draw at best price 9/4 with
Bet365 and Boyle Sports as i have a felling these teams may well cancel
themselves out.

So to recap:

Both games under 2.5 goals.

Belguim to beat Israel.

Holland and Belguim to draw.

Good luck and good punting,

Silverfox.

I was very disappointed with the performance of the Italian under 21 side
yesterday.

Full credit to Serbia for solid defending but Italy definitely under
performed which seems to be the case in first games in major tournaments.

At least the under 2.5 bet came in and with only 2 goals in 4 games so far
it could be a bet worth sticking with until at least the last set of group
games when the teams will have to come out to get a result.

Today i have turned my attention to the forthcoming Copa America which is
due to take place in Venezuela.

Obviously Brazil and Argentina are rightly favourites to win the
competition but at best price Argentina 15/8 and Brazil 2/1 both with
Betfred they offer little in the way of value.

In my constant search for a "value" bet i am going to have an investment
on Uruguay who are best price 14/1 with Boyle Sport at present in the
first 2 market.

Though they failed to qualify for the last World Cup going out to
Australia on Penalties after 2 legs they still have a squad which is
competitive enough to challenge.

In Diego Forlan they have a proven goalscorer in La Liga and who if
rumours are correct is currently a target for Liverpool,they also have
Alvaro Recoba of Inter who in my opinion has never fulfilled his undoubted
potential.

Their defence has the very reliable Carini of Inter in goal and at centre
half Diego Lugano of Fenerbache is an uncompromising defender, so as you
can see the spine of the team is strong.

Uruguay`s cause has also been helped by the fact that they are in the same
group as hosts Venezuela,Peru and Bolivia so have avoided some of the more
dangerous teams in the federation.

If Uruguay win their group which is quite possible their quarter final
opposition will come from one of the 2 best third placed sides in the
other 2 groups, which means that they would probably avoid Brazil or
Argentina till the Semi`s and at the knock out stage as we all know
anything can happen.

I am not saying Uruguay can win the competition but at 14/1 first 2
betting they in my opinion offer better value then the big 2,and with a
kind draw and a bit of luck who knows what may happen!

as always good luck and happy punting.

Silverfox.

The European under 21 Championships started yesterday in Holland and today
i will be having a bet on Italy to beat Serbia.

This should be the perfect start for Italy to ease themselves into the
group,.

Casiraghi (ex Chelsea and Lazio) is the under 21 coach and has in my
opinion the best squad of players to choose from, including
Montolivio,Rossi and Pazzani.

The Italians have won 5 of the last 8 Under 21 championships and i expect
them to win this edition with England and Holland providing the stiffest
competition.

Team news is sketchy at the moment but Roma midfielder Aquilani will be
fit after a dose of flu but defenders Lazzari and Criscito are doubts.

Serbia have a full squad to chose from and will provide tough opposition
in what i feel will be a low scoring match, they have a solid defence and
Italy will have to be very patient in trying to break them down.

Serbia qualified for the Championships by topping a group that contained
Lithuania and Georgia however they destroyed Sweden in their play off
winning 8-0 on aggregate and 5-0 in Sweden.

Italy had a fairly easy group which they topped by beating Austria and
Iceland but again they had tough opposition in their play off beating
Spain 2-1 on aggregate with the 2-1 win coming in the second leg in Spain.

So for me it has to be Italy to win the game today and the tournament, and
i will be having a second bet today on the game being under 2.5 goals as
the group games so far have only provided 1 goal in 2 matches in very
cagey affairs.

Good luck and good punting

Silverfox.

Today i will be having a punt on the Croatia v. Russia match.

This is a vital match involving two teams in England`s group and should go
a long way in sorting out a tight group.

At the moment Croatia head the group with 5 wins and 1 draw in their 6
games and are 2 points ahead of Israel and Russia and 5 ahead of England
who they beat 2-0 in Croatia in the Autumn of last year.

A win for Croatia tonight would put them in a dominating position in the
group as the toughest game on paper they will have left after today is
England away in the final round of qualifying matches, and by that time it
could be the they will already have qualified.

I fully expect Croatia to win tonight as they have an exceptional home
record in qualifying for major championships since independence in the mid
90`s, in fact since that time they have never lost a home qualifying game
for either the World Cup or European Championships.

Russia should not be underestimated as they too have yet to lose a match
with 4 wins and 2 draws, but the 2 draws have come at home to Croatia and
Israel and they have yet to go to these countries as well as face England
at Wembley in the Autumn so their road to qualifying is a hard one as they
are not the best of travellers.

Team news at this early stage is sketchy but Croatia will definitely be
without Rapaic whilst Russia look like they will have a full strength
squad to choose from.

The key for me tonight will be how adventurous the Russians will be, i
expect them to defend deep and look to counter on the break, but for me
Croatia have the firepower to break them down and in Da Silva their
naturalised Brazilian forward they have a constant goal threat as he has
already scored 6 in qualifying games so far.

So for me it is Croatia to pick up 3 points and to take control of the
group, i will also have a play on the under 2.5 goals market as i expect
this to be a cagey affair, and a small investment on Da Silva on first
goal scorer.

The best prices i have found so far are Croatia evens with Paddy Power and
Ladbrokes to win, 4/6 for under 2.5 goals with Blue Square and 6/1 with
Bet365 for Da Silva to be first goalscorer.

Good luck with whatever you go for and happy punting.

Silverfox

Today i will be having an investment on France to beat Ukraine in their
Euro 2008 qualifier.

Things could not be closer in this group with France ahead on goal
difference from Ukraine and Scotland and only 2 points ahead of 4th placed
Italy in what for me is the toughest qualifying group.

After 5 games France have won 4 and lost one which was at Hampden against
Scotland, they have scored 12 goals and conceded only 2.

Ukraine have the same record as France but have only scored 8 and conceded 4.

This is a real "6 pointer" for the 2 teams with France still having to go
to Italy and the Ukraine while the Ukraine have 2 home games still to come
against Italy and France.

Team news is that France will be without the injured Viera, Henry and
Sagnol whilst Trezeguet and Wiltord were not selected for the squad.

Ukraine have bigger problems with Shevchenko,Rebrov and Milveski all out
injured, whilst a number of their squad namely Vorobei (Shakhtar),
Kalinchenko (Spartak Moscow), defenders Chigrinski and Kucher (both
Shakhtar) all short of match practice with their respective teams as they
cannot get into the first eleven.

I am going for a narrow France win as i feel home advantage will be
important and the creativity of Ribery and Malouda, should set up plenty
of chances for Anelka and if picked Cisse.

I also will be having an interest in the under 2.5 goal market as i cannot
see this being a high scoring game given both sides solid defences.

As always good luck and happy punting,

Silverfox.