Premier League Football Picks
Everton beat Bolton 2-0 yesterday to see my main bet win but it was a case
of close but no cigar for the -2.5 goals bet and Tim Cahill first
goalscorer though he was second goalscorer!
Tonight I am going to have a bet on Manchester City to beat Blackburn as
they are best price 9/8 with Pinnacle and generally Evens elsewhere.
As I so often preach to make a living out of punting it is the number of
value bets you find that make the difference rather then the volume
placed.
Odds against for a side that are 9 from 9 at home in the league this
season against a side that are in a poor run of form is too tempting not
to have a bet on.
Manchester City under Sven Goran-Eriksson have played some good football
this season and fully deserve to be in 5th position in the league and a
win tonight will lift them up to 4th ahead of Liverpool. Their full home
record in the league read won 9 drawn 0 lost 0 scored 17 and conceded 5
and though all runs must come to an end hopefully tonight will not be when
it happens.
Their form over the last 6 games has also been good with 3 wins 3 draws
and only 1 defeat when they lost 2-1 at Spurs.
Blackburn on the other hand are in a poor run of form though it must be
said that their performances have been better then results have lead to
believe. They sit 10th in the league and have an away record so far of won
3 drawn 3 lost 2 scored 12 conceded 13 so as with all Mark Hughes teams
are tough to beat, but the worrying stat for me and the one that leads me
towards Manchester City tonight is that in their last 6 games they have a
record of won 1 drawn 1 lost 4 scored 8 and conceded 12 with only 1 point
from 3 away games in that time which they got in a 2-2 draw at Fulham.
Not surprisingly only Fulham, Sunderland and Derby have worse form in that
time.
Head to head gives some hope to Blackburn tonight as City have only beaten
them once in the last 10 games when they won 3-2 at Ewood Park in August
2003 and you have to go back to 1999 for City’s last home win against
Blackburn:
Sep 2, 07 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 1 - 0 Manchester City
Mar 11, 07 FA Cup Blackburn Rovers 2 - 0 Manchester City
Jan 20, 07 Premiership Manchester City 0 - 3 Blackburn Rovers
Sep 17, 06 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 4 - 2 Manchester City
May 7, 06 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 2 - 0 Manchester City
Nov 19, 05 Premiership Manchester City 0 - 0 Blackburn Rovers
Apr 23, 05 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 0 - 0 Manchester City
Nov 13, 04 Premiership Manchester City 1 - 1 Blackburn Rovers
Jan 17, 04 Premiership Manchester City 1 - 1 Blackburn Rovers
Aug 25, 03 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 2 - 3 Manchester City
Early team news is that Manchester City midfielder Michael Johnson is a
major doubt after suffering an abdominal complaint.
Emile Mpenza has a minor muscle strain but is expected to be fit to play,
while Stephen Ireland is available after a three-match ban.
Blackburn trio Robbie Savage, Stephen Warnock and Keith Treacy are all
suspended for the trip to City but central defender Christopher Samba is
available for selection after serving a one-match ban.
The other bet I will have tonight is +2.5 goals as both sides have goals
in them and defences that are not the tightest in the league. Again the
11/10 with Paddy Power looks a bit on the generous side and I hope that it
is a case of the odds compilers having a bit of festive spirit though
somehow I doubt it!
So for me Manchester City to beat Blackburn though I will be keeping an
eye on the match with a view to trading in play should it look like the
result is going against me and +2.5 goals as a saver.
On the subject of trading in play I know some punters who are loathe doing
it as it is almost an admission of guilt that their original tip was
wrong! I personally have lost count of how many times I have turned a
losing position into a winner or at the very least a small loss by using
this strategy and it is now become an even more important weapon in a
punters armoury.
Good Luck,
Silverfox.
