Fenerbache v. PSV Champions League
The value of the saver bet was highlighted last night as Tranmere lost 1-0
at home to Oldham to make my main bet a loser but however the under 2.5
goal came to the rescue to prevent a blank tip.
Tonight I am going to have a bet on the Fenerbache v. PSV tie, most of the
other ties in the Champions league are either to short in the odd
department or to close to call but I feel Fenerbache at best price 21/20
with Totesport may offer a bit of value.
A win tonight for Fenerbache will put them in a good position to qualify
from the group with an away tie at Inter and a home game against CSKA
Moscow to come after tonight's game.
They are 2nd in the group behind Inter on 5 points, one ahead of PSV, and
they have beaten Inter at home 1-0 in match day one and followed that up
with a 2-2 draw in Russia and a 0-0 draw in Holland so have proved they
are a hard side to beat.
Their home form in the league is outstanding with 5 wins and one draw in 6
games so far scoring 12 and conceding 4. They are currently 3rd in the
Turkish League 3 points behind Galatasaray after 11 games and they are
currently the form side in the league over the last 6 games with 4 wins
and 2 draws including 3 straight home ins in that period where they have
scored 8 and conceded 2.
Their opponents tonight PSV have beaten CSKA 2-1 at home and lost 2-0 to
Inter at the San Siro as well as drawing 0-0 with Fenerbache in the last
game in their Champions league campaign so far.
In the Dutch league they are 3rd one point behind leaders Ajax but their
strength is definitely at home where they are 5 for 5 scoring 16 and
conceding only 1, compared to their away record of W2 D2 L1 F8 A4 which
though respectable does in my opinion make me side with a home win tonight
especially when you consider the 2 away wins have been at bottom club
Sparta and second to bottom Heracles.
The only time PSV have travelled to Fenerbache was in September 2005 when
they were beaten 3-0 in a Group game in that seasons Champions League so
again for me it is a good pointer.
One other factor is how PSV will react to the loss of Coach Ronald Koeman
to Valencia this may have a negative effect on the side as they lost the
league lead at the weekend when they lost to Herenveen in the first game
with him.
Team news is that Fenerbache will be without defender Lugano and forward
Deivid both suspended for the game and these are key players for
Fenerbache also Kezman is still injured and will not be able to play
against his former club.
PSV also have their share of problems for tonight's match, as Eric Addo
starts a four-game suspension, and Ibrahim Afellay, Manuel da Costa, John
de Jong and Jason Culina are all out through injury.
The other bet I will be having as a saver is the under 2.5 goal option at
generally 4/6 it looks like a fairly safe bet as in the previous 3
encounters between the two sides only 5 goals have been scored and with
the loss of Deivid for Fenerbache their most potent goal threat will be
lost.
I believe PSV will play deep and hope to catch Fenerbache on the break and
a point would be a good result for them. The onus will be very much on the
home team to go for the win in front of their fanatical but none to
patient fans.
I would not put off anyone who likes to play the correct score market to
take a bit of the 6/1 on offer for a 1-0 win in what I expect will be a
close tight game but I personally will stick with Fenerbache to win and
under 2.5 goals to be scored.
Best of luck,
Silverfox.
