Goodwood Horseracing Tips
Sadly Spirit of Shajah finished just out the money yesterday but as i am
not tempted by the soccer at the moment i am going for what i feel is a
value bet today in the 2.15 at Goodwood.
This race is run over 2m 5f which is at the very top end of the flat
racing distance scale and the horse i fancy is NOBLE MINSTREL @ 10/1 with
various bookies.
At the moment there are 16 runners so first 4 should payout but dont be
surprised if one drops out before the start,as our friend Mr Bookie hates
paying out 4 places.
Back to the race and Noble Minstrel he is a horse that will enjoy the
better ground and has a profile which suggests he can run a big race.
History is on the side of this 4 year old ridden today by Jim Crowley as
it would seem that these middle distance handicaps are dominated by 4yo
and 5yo horses. That is the case once again with the 4-5yo age group
taking 16 of the last 18 renewals. There are no handicap trends with past
winners carrying a wide range of weights but horses who have previously
won earlier in the year have won 13/14 renewals. The only occasion a horse
has triumphed in that period despite not recording a win earlier on in the
year was in 1997 when Cloud Inspector won. He was a career maiden coming
into the race and was a lightly raced 6yo so he was an extra ordinary
winner.
Noble Minstrel has the profile of a progressive stayer and may still be
one step ahead of the handicapper. He had been improving well on the all
weather winning 3 times from 1 mile 4 furlongs to 2 miles and showed the
switch to turf to be no problem. At Goodwood over 2m he finished 2nd
behind Full House but got no sort of run and had to weave between horses
before staying on well when the winner had flown. Not suited by the soft
going at Newmarket he ran no sort of race but back on a sounder surface
back at Newmarket last time out he bounced back to form in a race that
wasnt run to suit. The slow pace didn't suit Noble Minstrel but he still
finished 2nd.
He has good course form, nicely handicapped on a mark only 4lbs higher
than his Goodwood 2nd behind Full House. The further he has gone the
better he has looked so the trip shouldn't be a problem and he has his
ground.
So my main bet today will be on Noble House with the hope that he can go a
few places better then yesterday`s selection that ran a creditable race in
defeat.
As always good luck
Silverfox.
