Tuesday, October 31, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Form Does NOT exist.
By Daniel Finkelstein
I am occasionally aware that my attitudes to life are not the same as everyone else?s. The time I supported the siting of a McDonalds in a middle-class area, for instance. Or the time I asked Norman St John Stevas for his autograph. (Does it make it better or worse that I was 14 years old?) Yet there are few things that leave me as isolated as my view about form in football.
Form, you see, is the staple of football commentary. They discuss team form and player form all day on talkSPORT. It features in every match report in every paper. Punters in every part of the country are, as you read this piece, drawing circles around ties where the odds look good, because the punter, you see, knows a thing or two about the form of the full back.
And here's my view, the Fink Tank view, form does not exist!. There have been various studies in America about the so-called "hot hand" in competitive sport. It's a phrase that is used to describe basketball players who are doing well in a game. The fans plead for the ball to be passed to a player who is scoring points, the man with the hot hand. The academics say hot hand is a figment of the imagination.
The only US sport where there appears to be any evidence for any sort of "hot hand" is ten-pin bowling. Here, players can very, very briefly be on a roll.
So what about football? Fink Tank has been conducting one of its periodic investigations into the question of form, using different methods to previous occasions.
Dr Matthew Atkinson and Dr Henry Stott began by dividing every Premiership result for the past six years into hits and misses. Hits are games where a side wins and misses are those where they draw or lose. Every team can now be ascribed an average hit rate for the past six years. Chelsea's is the best with a 66.9 per cent hit rate they edge out Arsenal, on 62.3 per cent, and Manchester United, on 61.15 per cent. Sunderlands 9.68 per cent rate is comfortably the worst.
These hit rates tell you how likely it is that a given streak of hits will occur. The higher the hit rate the longer the streaks you might expect to see in the normal course of things. A team who win 50 per cent of the time are quite likely to win in clumps of, say, three, but if they start winning eight on the trot it is time to sit up and take notice.
We then started looking for streaks of hits and misses to see whether any were sufficiently long that, using the strictest possible statistical test, we would judge remarkable. And heres the thing; we did find some. Thirteen in all, including two streaks of Liverpool hits and one streak of misses making them the streakiest side.
So have we been wrong? Is this evidence that form exists after all? We worked up a new test.
We divided each teams results into four categories: prior win and current win; prior win and current non-win; prior non-win and current win; prior non-win and current non-win. Then we applied something called the Chi Square analysis.
Not a single team won a significantly greater proportion of games after wins than after non-wins. There is no hot-hand effect at all. Winning one or more games does not change your chance of winning the next one.
So how to explain those few surprising streaks over the past six years? Not by form, but by lumpiness of easy and difficult fixtures.
Form does not exist. It just doesn?t. Now off you go to the pub and try telling them that before the match. I wish you luck.
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Sunday, October 29, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Alan Pardew To Be Sacked?
The bookies now suspect that Alan Pardew is about to be hammered. Pardew is now ODDS-ON to be the next manager to be sacked.
Will Hill offer odds of just 6/4 that Pardew will NOT be West Ham manager by the end of this weekend (Midnight Sunday). You can also get 7/4 that he will lose his job in the period between October 30th and December 31st.
So this means that Pardew is now the 4/7 favourite on next Premiership manager to leave his club.
Odds on other managers are:
Pearce 6/1
Dowie 7/1
Roeder 16/1
Warnock & Southgate 20/1
Coleman 25/1
Allardyce 33/1
Redknapp 33/1
What are your thoughts on this? does Pardew deserve to be sacked? Is it coincidence that West Ham started playing poorly once the Argentinian saga occured? Are there other managers who deserve to be sacked as well?
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Friday, October 27, 2006 by BetBonus.co.uk
Televised Premiership Matches
Saturday 28 October
Sheffield United vs Chelsea The Blades get another lunch time airing on live television, this time against reigning champions Chelsea. There is no point in previewing this match in too much detail as the expected outcome is obvious. Chelsea have won 10 out of their last 11 matches in all competitions and a 1-0, or 2-0 victory is the call. Walker's Word 1x2: Chelsea @ 3/10 AH: Chelsea ? 1 � @ 33/40 OU: Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Newcastle United vs Charlton Athletic
A televised teatime relegation six pointer. The last two encounters at St James' Park between this pair have been drawn but given Charlton's dire predicament I can't see anything other than a home win. The Addicks are rooted to the foot of the table and are winless in six Premiership matches. Newcastle have also lost four of their last five in the league but Charlton's dismal away record stands out. They are winless in 18 trips on the road and have dropped 50 points out of 54 available in the last year. Walker's Word 1x2: Newcastle @ 4/5 AH: Newcastle ? � @ 4/5 OU: Over 2.5 goals @ Evens Sunday 29 OctoberWest Ham United vs Blackburn RoversWest Ham need to stop the rot if they are to avoid relegation this season. They have lost their last eight matches in a row and it's 11 since they last saw a win. Marlon Harewood's goal in the humiliating 2-1 Carling Cup defeat at Chesterfield was the first goal the Hammers scored in eight matches. Blackburn are showing decent form, despite losing to Bolton last weekend, but have not won at Upton Park since 1994. A draw may be the sensible option here. Walker's Word 1x2: Draw @ 9/4 AH: Blackburn level ball @ 23/20 OU: Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6
Monday 30 October
Manchester City vs Middlesbrough
Manchester City are unbeaten in the league at home this season while Middlesbrough have not won on their travels. Simple case of a home win then? Wrong. Manchester City have not beaten Middlesbrough in seven home Premiership attempts, with Boro winning the match 1-0 on four occasions since the top flight was established in 1992/93. This remarkable statistic cannot be ignored. Walker's Word 1x2: Middlesbrough @ 21/10 AH: Middlesbrough + � @ 7/8 OU: Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6
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Thursday, October 26, 2006 by Gamblog UK
A Date With Robbie Williams
The online bookmakers William Hill could lose a whopping 14k after accepting a bet from Frances Ingram who is 33 and from Chester. She has bet 40 pounds at odds of 100/1 that she will go on a date with pop superstar Robbie Williams. She has also placed an extra tenner at 1000/1 that the date will lead to marriage.
It turns out that she has been a huge fan for many years and she goes to most of his concerts as well.
A spokesman for William Hill said "It is one of the more original bets we have ever taken and it is the sort of wager that could become self fulfilling. Everyone loves seeing the bookies taken to the cleaners and I am sure Robbie is no different, if he hears about the bet surely he will ask her out."
I wonder if they would accept a bet on me going on a date with this young lady?
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Wednesday, October 25, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Gambling On A White Christmas Odds
Gambling on whether there will be a white christmas has always been one of the most famous types of bets, and for the first time in 30 years of white christmas betting William Hill bookmakers will now accept a bet on whether or not snow will fall on Buckingham palace during Christmas day (24 hour period).
Due to the extra long period of warm weather in the UK this year William Hill are now offering a whopping 8/1 that it will snow on xmas. This is the highest it has been this century.
You can also bet on whether it will snow in any of the following areas via the William Hill web site.
William Hill Latest White Christmas Betting odds: 3/1 Aberdeen, 7/2 Dublin, 7/2 Glasgow, 7/1 Manchester, 7/1 Birmingham, 7/1 Liverpool, 7/1 Leeds, 8/1 Cardiff, 8/1 Exeter, 8/1 London.
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Tuesday, October 24, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Bloggers Wanted
Gamblog is growing by the day and we are now looking for fresh new talent to improve the blog even further.
If you are knowledgable in any of the subjects below then please contact us via the contact address at the bottom of the page, or leave a comment with your contact e-mail address:
*Gambling
*Poker
*Casinos
*Sports Gambling
We are aiming to give a monthly cash prize for the best post, and it is a great way to get yourself known in the industry. So if you fancy having your thoughts, rants and tips seen around the world then contact us today.
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Monday, October 23, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Jermain Defoe Bite
For a player that has shown no bite all season I was amazed this morning when I heard that Jermain Defoe allegedly tried to take a chunk out of Javier Mascheranos arm.
Even more amazingly Martin Jol claimed that "It is part of the game. They kicked him three times from behind in 10 minutes and he wanted to show his frustration in a nice, comical way."
If you take a look at the photo to the left everything seems ok at first. But I have a sneaking suspicion that he may be munching on a nice juicy bit of arm in that photo.
Hopefully Spurs can find some bite upfront in the near future or it could be a long season for them.
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Sunday, October 22, 2006 by Gamblog UK
While the Americans attempt to ban online gambling for it's residents, those very same gamblers are laying bets online regarding the legalization of marijuana. Clearly, some American bong-toking politicians have been smoking too much skunk weed. Marijuana BettingOddsmakers say it's 1.6-1 odds on the "yes" vote and 1-to-2 odds for "no" for Amendment 44 to pass, which would allow Coloradans 21 or older to posses up to an ounce of marijuana. Nevada has a similar initiative on the November ballot ( regulate marijuana.org), and bookies are giving the same odds in Nevada as in Colorado. BetCRIS bookies calculate odds based on previous amendments regarding marijuana, the polls and the many media reports. If the amendment to the Colorado constitution passes, it still would be illegal to grow, sell, drive under the influence of, or openly display, use, or consume marijuana. Source: Legalize marijuana? Bookies say it is not a safe bet Marijuana♠ American War Against Marijuana♠ Legalise Cannabis Alliance♠ Marijuana Post♠ Cannabis.com♠ Sensi Seeds
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by Gamblog UK
Illegal Horseracing up and down the motorway is the new craze I hear. Apparently mafia folk in Messina - Southern Italy, have been organising horse races on open streets and motorways. Traffic grinds to a halt, some drivers stop to watch, hence everyone stops, stuck in the traffic watching horseracing at 7am.
Mopeds and motorcars surround these illegal horse races, which are actually more like Harness Racing (horse and driver in a cart), than your traditional horseracing itself. The police say they are prevented from making arrests or stopping the races because of the cavalcade. The races have been filmed on traffic cameras instead.
Horses Drugged To Race On Motorways
Most worrisome is the Messina police say the horses are doped up to the hind quarters on many drugs to get them to run. Presumably the horses would rather not race down concrete roads and motorways, dragging a bloke in a cart with an equine whip around, surrounded by a bunch of mad scooter riders and horn beeping mafioso in Fiat's.
Motorway Race Betting?
I have seen no reports as yet that bets have been placed on this Italian motorway horseracing thing. Odds on if motorway racing is made into a legal sport, Ladbrokes will price up a market within the hour.
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Thursday, October 19, 2006 by BetBonus.co.uk
Televised Premiership Matches
Saturday 21 October
Wigan Athletic vs Manchester City
Last season these teams were involved in a ding-dong Boxing Day encounter which finished 4-3 in Wigan's favour. At the moment, Manchester City are fairing better than Paul Jewell's side in the league, in 12th position on nine points compared to 17th and five points but with two inconsistent teams, home advantage could prevail.
Walker's Word
1x2: Wigan @ 13/10
AH: Wigan -1/4 @ 41/40
OU: Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4
Aston Villa vs Fulham
Both Aston Villa and Fulham are enjoying life in the top half of the table after several seasons in the doldrums but the smart money will be on the home side this weekend. Martin O'Neill's side are not only unbeaten this season but they have won four of the last five encounters against Fulham at Villa Park, apart from last season which finished goalless.
Walker's Word
1x2: Villa @ 8/11
AH: Villa -3/4 @ 43/40
OU: Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 Sunday 22 October
Manchester United vs Liverpool
The jewel in the Premiership fixture list this weekend is undoubtedly United vs Liverpool. Top of the table United tackle stuttering Liverpool who have dropped points against Bolton and Blackburn in their last two matches. However, there could be an upset on the cards. Liverpool have won three of their last six visits to Old Trafford by a single goal and United have already lost at home to Arsenal this season.
Walker's Word
1x2: Liverpool @ 7/2
AH: Liverpool + 1/2 @ 43/50
OU: Over 2.5 goals @ 7/5
Reading vs Arsenal
After a sluggish start to the season, Arsenal are finding their rhythm and will no doubt be paired together with Chelsea in numerous double bets this weekend. Considering Reading took points of Manchester United and kept Chelsea to within one goal at the Madejski Stadium this season the odds on Arsenal are not tempting. However, an interesting statistic is Reading have lost to Arsenal in all five competitive games ever played between the pair and unsurprisingly an away win is the expected result.
Walker's Word
1x2: Arsenal @ 8/15
AH: Arsenal - 1 @ 47/40
OU: Over 2.5 goals @ Evens
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by Gamblog UK
Balloon out of all proportion by Gerry Macdonnell.
Normally, I have little to no time for politicians; but when plans were afoot to open a massage parlour in my neighbourhood, I felt obliged to write to my local MP, demanding that action be taken to keep prices at an affordable level.
Flushed with this successful foray into the political arena, I've decided to help out Jack Straw in the aftermath of the veil wearing controversy. I've suggested that the Government introduce new legislation making it compulsory for all British females to cover up, until a recent photograph has been graded by a select group of professionals. It works on almost every level.
While that solution was relatively simple, the conundrum that is Man U v Liverpool is proving far more perplexing. After studying the stats, the value lies with United at 10/11.
I can predict with relative confidence that this will not be a goalfest. The last four matches between the old foes have either been goalless or settled by a single strike. In Merseyside, a 1-0 win for Man U would be about as welcome as Boris Johnson, but the smart money is in play at 6/1.
I've given young Rooney a fair bit of stick this season, but recent form suggests he's approaching his stunning best. Admittedly, he's still not scoring, but there's no doubting his greatness. Rooney is available at a big fat 28/1 to score the only goal of the game.
Fulham last won away at Aston Villa in March 1973, 8� months before I was born. Somewhat worryingly, my old dear was a Villa Park regular in the 70's, and she was never shy in putting herself about. It's entirely possible that I could be the apple of an ex Fulham player's eye, I'm just praying it's not Rodney Marsh. The unbeaten Villa will extend Fulham's dismal run in the Midlands, you should play at a promiscuous 8/11.
I have a theory that Steve McClaren may be hard of hearing. He's completely oblivious to Gareth Barry's incessant knocking on the England door and just the sight of the inept manager is enough for me to break into sign language. Barry looks a great shout at 9/2 to score at any time.
Chelsea have won every Premiership fixture against Portsmouth (six in total) by a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline. Is this a statistical anomaly or a trend that will lead to a mountain of riches? I'm hoping for the latter. You must cover either of these scores for a potential payout of 5/2; it's not erm?rocket science.
Frank Lampard has been nominated for the Ballon d'or; now I'm not bilingual, so I'm guessing the translation is something like 'Balloon Man'. It's said that Frank Lampard never misses training; he would if they renamed it 'the goal'. Lampard may have found the net in both of last season's meets with Pompey; but Drogba is a far more likely candidate to net the opener at 7/2.
As a consequence of a horrific collision with Petr Cech, the name of Stephen Hunt has been immortalised in Cockney rhyming slang. As Reading have lost every competitive match they have played against Arsenal, i'll be having a 'Stevie' (punt) on the Gunners at 8/13.
David James remains a character. England's 'no 4' has refused to be interviewed by Sky until December, as that's when his home satellite system will be repaired. I may be going soft in my old age (I overheard the wife suggesting this to her mother), but Calamity's growing on me. Man City are nailed on to keep a clean sheet against Wigan, they're also guaranteed to draw a blank themselves. No goal scorer at 17/2 looks rather nice.
I backed Robbie Savage to score at any time last week, so you can imagine my disappointment as he passed to a team-mate when in goal scoring range; I just wish he'd have shot himself. An in form Blackburn host a quality Bolton side, the draw looks a reasonable investment at 11/5.
Spurs needed the touch of an Angel to earn a point last week; heavenly intervention will not be necessary against West Ham. Martin Jol has finally realised that Jermain Defoe is worth a place in his starting line-up, the miniature former Hammer can be the catalyst for a Tottenham win at 4/5.
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six matches against Middlesbrough, but as Steve McClaren was the manager for all of those games, that achievement is somewhat diminished. Boro can finally call the Toon at the Riverside at a pretty 6/4.
I'm not particularly skilled in the bedroom, but I'm pretty good at table tennis. Everton are a top notch bet at 4/7 to see off Sheffield United at Goodison, it might not be nap bet territory, but it's definitely a close neighbour.
The accumulator of the week:
The accer this week is so explosive, North Korean midget Kim Jong-il has expressed an interest.
Everton, Aston Villa, Man Utd, Middlesbrough and Tottenham are the five selections, the payout is a magnificent 22/1.
The specials:
"A tasty Red head" - Paul Scholes to score with a header 7/1
"Purple Wayne" - Wayne Rooney to be sent off 16/1
"The Huth is out there" - Robert Huth to score at any time 6/1
"And bags" - Andy Johnson to score two or more goals 4/1
"Juan sighs, Fitz Hall" - Aston Villa to be awarded a penalty and Fitz Hall to score at any time 50/1
"There's a bad moon on the rise" - Joey Barton to score with a header 10/1
The lay man:
There's a queue of people trying to back Charlton at a smidgen above evens on the betting exchanges; they obviously haven't seen them play this season. Lay, lay again; then lay a little bit more.
Weekend Betting:
Wigan v Man City Saturday 21st October 12:45 Live on Premiership Plus
Wigan 11/8
Draw 9/4
Man City 21/10
Get on: Draw
Match Special:
Joey Barton to be booked 2/1
Charlton v Watford Saturday 21st October 15:00
Charlton Evs
Draw 9/4
Watford 3/1
Get on: Watford
Match Special:
Marlon King to score the only goal of the game 55/1
Chelsea v Portsmouth Saturday 21st October 15:00
Chelsea 2/7
Draw 4/1
Portsmouth 11/1
Get on: Chelsea
Match Special:
Drogba to score from outside the area 4/1
Everton v Sheff Utd Saturday 21st October 15:00
Everton 4/7
Draw 13/5
Sheff Utd 11/2
Get on: Everton
Match Special:
Everton to win 1-0 6/1
Aston Villa v Fulham Saturday 21st October 17:15 Live on Premiership Plus
Aston Villa 8/11
Draw 5/2
Fulham 4/1
Get on: Aston Villa
Match Special:
Agbonlahor to score at any time 5/2
Man Utd v Liverpool Sunday 22nd October 13:00 Live on Sky
Man Utd 10/11
Draw 9/4
Liverpool 10/3
Get on: Man Utd
Match Special:
Steven Gerrard to be sent off 25/1
Blackburn v Bolton Sunday 22nd October 15:00
Blackburn 11/8
Draw 11/5
Bolton 2/1
Get on: Draw
Match Special:
Robbie Savage to be booked 13/8
Middlesbrough v Newcastle Sunday 22nd October 15:00
Middlesbrough 6/4
Draw 9/4
Newcastle 12/5
Get on: Middlesbrough
Match Special:
Middlesbrough to win and keep a clean sheet 14/5
Tottenham v West Ham Sunday 22nd October 15:00
Tottenham 4/5
Draw 5/2
West Ham 4/1
Get on: Tottenham
Match Special:
Jermain Defoe to score two or more goals 5/1
Reading v Arsenal Sunday 22nd October 16:00 Live on Sky
Reading 5/1
Draw 11/4
Arsenal 8/13
Get on: Arsenal
Match Special:
Arsenal to score four or more goals 11/2
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Wednesday, October 18, 2006 by Gamblog UK
All bets off at first Israel race. Israel has opened its first licensed horse-racing track, but betting was suspended on the opening race at the Nir Yaffe Stadium. A coalition made up of Jewish religious leaders and animal rights protestors managed to disrupt the meeting, although the first race went ahead. Gambling is generally prohibited in Israel, as Jewish religious law forbids most types of betting. However, it is extremely popular among many Israelis. The Israeli government approved construction of the racetrack in the northern Gilboa region two years ago - and at the same time, proceedings were launched to legalise betting on horse races. Source - Betting Called Off At First Israel Horseracing Meeting - BBC
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by Gamblog UK
Ladbrokes to challenge gaming block by the Dutch "Bookmaker Ladbrokes said it would issue a complaint to the European Union after losing an appeal case in the Netherlands preventing it from accepting bids from Dutch citizens. Ladbrokes said the Dutch court's decision meant its Internet site, Ladbrokes.com, must block Dutch gamblers and the state operator had instigated the legal proceedings to protect its monopoly position. "This is protectionism in the extreme. The state operator has instigated legal proceedings to protect their monopoly position and the national courts are supporting them. This is a clear breach of EU law," Ladbrokes Managing Director of eGaming John O'Reilly said."
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by Gamblog UK
Asian group of bettors has computer program that targets soft lines. "Over the last few weeks, Las Vegas and off-shore bookmakers may have felt like it was deja vu all over again as the point spread of select college football games were pounded relentlessly, often forcing a line move of 3-4 points. The scenario, according to sources in Las Vegas and off-shore, is strangely similar to the one employed 20 years ago by the famous Computer Group, which won millions of dollars on college football and basketball, based on the selections generated by a computer program developed by a Westinghouse mathematician."
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Sunday, October 15, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Formula 1 versus a normal Mercedes is not a fair race. It was still interesting anyway.
Hat tip - Just How Fast is a F1 Car? - Burnley Wallet
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Friday, October 13, 2006 by BetBonus.co.uk
Televised Premiership MatchesSaturday 14 OctoberWigan Athletic vs Manchester UnitedManchester United have a great opportunity to extend their lead at the top of the Premiership in this lunch time kick off. Wigan have struggled for form and goals and could find United too much for them. Alex Ferguson's side need to improve on their victory against Newcastle following disappointing results against Reading and Arsenal in recent weeks. Walker's Word1x2: United @ 4/7 AH: United -1 @ 21/20 OU: Over 2.5 goals @ 19/20 Reading vs ChelseaThe live pay-per-view offering should not hold any surprises, despite Reading earning a draw against Manchester United in similar circumstances a fortnight ago. Chelsea will win but it is likely to be a tight encounter as they make it difficult for themselves. Walker's Word1x2: Chelsea @ 1/2 AH: Chelsea -1 @ 10/11 OU: Under 2.5 goals @ 17/10 Sunday 15 OctoberNewcastle United vs Bolton WanderersDespite heavy investment over the summer, Newcastle are struggling this season and have won just two out of seven Premiership matches so far. That record should improve against third placed Bolton who have won their last two against Portsmouth and Liverpool. However, history is on the Magpies side who have won six out of the last seven at St James' Park stretching back to the 1995/96 season and tasty odds can be had on a home win. Walker's Word1x2: Newcastle @ 13/10 AH: Newcastle - 1/4 @ 19/20 OU: Over 2.5 goals @ 13/10 Monday 16 OctoberFulham vs Charlton AthleticFulham entertain rock-bottom Charlton in a match they will be expected to win. The Cottagers hit back from 2-0 down against Watford in their last game, leading the match at Vicarage Road 3-2 until Ashley Young snatched a late equaliser. At home, Chris Coleman's side are traditionally strong and the Addicks confidence is at rock bottom, having lost their last four matches on the trot. Walker's Word1x2: Fulham @ 11/10 AH: Fulham -1/2 @ 9/8 OU: Over 2.5 goals @ Evens Read Walker's Word♠ Betting Previews For All This Weekend's Premiership Fixtures (14,16 Oct, 2006)♠ Premiership Football Preview Archive - Walker's Word
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Thursday, October 12, 2006 by Gamblog UK
The 'No Bell' Peace Prize by Gerry McDonnell I'm not one to blow my own horn; in fact, I only ever whip my horn out on special occasions, such as a birthday, a Christmas party or a comical episode of Soccer AM. However, it's with a genuine sense of pride that i speak of my recent charity work; I've been heavily involved in raising awareness of lesbian issues via the medium of DVD. A lot of my good work was undone when Paul Scholes allegedly made a homophobic remark to a referee. A spokesman for OutRage! may have quipped, "The cheek of it; if anyone should respect minority groups, it's a ginger." I have a theory that Wayne Rooney's poor recent form is a result of an infatuation with the carrot-topped midfielder. Let's look at the evidence; Rooney's slump began when Scholes returned to first team action; Wayne grew a camp ginger beard in some sort of bizarre homage to his hero, and if conclusive proof was still needed, Scholes is a well respected old pro; Rooney knows all about that. Should Sir Alex sell Scholes in order to get the best out of Rooney? I'll let the purple-nosed one decide. Should Man U be backed at 4/7 to see off a struggling Wigan? Definitely. Rooney is understandably frustrated by his below par performances; I've got a DVD that could help him out. It was a cheap shot for Rooney to blame the FA for his atrocious run, the staff at 'Fatties Anonymous' are said to be devastated by this unfounded allegation. Rooney's an even money shot with the majority of the big boys to find the net this weekend, only the clinically insane will be on. Glenn Hoddle labelled Didier Zokora 'a blatant cheat' after he dived to seal a victory against Pompey, and if anyone knows about karma it's the eccentric tambourine-banging former England manager. Spurs travel to Villa Park to play a team with a 100% home record; get on the Villa at 11/8. Juan Pablo Angel should be backed at 13/2 to net the opener. I can exclusively reveal that the Colombian hitman has a surprise tactic up his sleeve; he plans to roll the ball gently towards goal. It's been a horrific season for Pompey's Pedro Mendes. First, 'Gentle Ben' Thatcher introduced him to his forearm; then he was an unwilling co-star in a Didier Zokora production. As West Ham are the latest visitors to Fratton Park, a change of luck is almost guaranteed for Pedro; a home win appeals at even money. Thierry Henry is not only a great footballer, he's a gentleman. I'm not sure how he persuaded his French team-mates to lie down against Scotland, but this charitable gesture proves the undoubted class of the man. The enigmatic genius looks back to his sublime best, he's even added heading to his already impressive repertoire. Henry has been priced up at 12/1 to score a hat-trick against Watford at the Emirates, that's bordering on appealing. Van Persie's also in fine nick, his volley against Charlton was the most talked about strike since mad Maggie tucked up the miners. Henry and Van Persie could potentially be the greatest double act since Skinner and Baddiel first watched Seinfeld and Costanza. You can't get rich backing Arsenal at 1/5 to see off the outgunned Watford, but who wants to be Paul McCartney? Joey Barton was fined £2,000 this week for showing Everton fans his backside. The Scousers were quite rightly seething about Joey's full moon; if they wanted to see a hairy bum they would have logged on to robbiesavage.com. Everton are worth a punt at 9/5 to leave the Riverside with the win, a 1-0 scoreline is in play at 15/2 and 'under 2.5' goals in the game is a gimme at 4/6. (This match has had two goals or less on the last nine occasions.) Fulham are the weekend nap at 11/10 at home to a moribund Charlton. The Addicks haven't won at the Cottage for 20 years and have lost all of their matches on the road this season. Poor old Ian Dowie, it doesn't look pretty. Frank Lampard had the barefaced cheek to suggest that England need two holding midfielders to accommodate him; presumably one to hold the burgers and the other to hold the fries. Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho has stated that he'll continue to select misfiring striker Andriy Shevchenko until he scores; Reading definitely won't be on the end of a thumping. Backing Chelsea to win by either a 1-0 or a 2-0 scoreline looks a solid route to profit at 5/2. Rafa Benitez changes his team more often than I have hot dinners. Actually, that's probably an unfair comparison; Heather Mills wins the triple jump more often than the wife ventures into the kitchen. The constant tinkering hasn't had a detrimental effect on performances though, Liverpool will see off Blackburn at 1/2. Rovers haven't had a man sent off for eight games now; that's approaching a club record. It's no coincidence that their disciplinary problems have eased since offloading Craig Bellamy to Liverpool; they should be awarded the 'No Bell' peace prize. Apologies. Bellamy may be a complete nause, but he's a decent footballer; he's almost nailed on at 9/2 to open the scoring against his former team-mates. The accumulator of the week: The accer this week is so conclusive, if Saddam Hussein introduced it as evidence in his trial, he'd be immediately acquitted. Man Utd, Arsenal, Everton, Portsmouth and Fulham are the picks; the payout is a gargantuan 20/1. The quote of the week: "We urge Paul Scholes to apologise and to express his opposition to homophobia. It might help him understand and appreciate gay issues if he visited Manchester's Gay Centre and Lesbian & Gay Foundation." Would it not be easier to just read Ashley Cole's autobiography? (He mentions how tough it was dealing with false accusations.) The lay man: Scientists believe that anything is possible; they obviously haven't taken into consideration Charlton's form away from home. Lay the Addicks at 3/1.
Weekend Betting: Wigan v Man Utd Saturday 14th October 12:45 Live on Sky Wigan 6/1 Draw 14/5 Man Utd 4/7 Get on: Man Utd Match Special: Ronaldo to score at any time 15/8 Arsenal v Watford Saturday 14th October 15:00 Arsenal 1/5 Draw 11/2 Watford 16/1 Get on: Arsenal Match Special: Henry and Van Persie both to score 3/1 Aston Villa v Tottenham Saturday 14th October 15:00 Aston Villa 11/8 Draw 9/4 Tottenham 5/2 Get on: Aston Villa Match Special: Angel to score with a header 9/2 Liverpool v Blackburn Saturday 14th October 15:00 Liverpool 1/2 Draw 3/1 Blackburn 7/1 Get on: Liverpool Match Special: Bellamy to score two or more goals 4/1 Man City v Sheff Utd Saturday 14th October 15:00 Man City 8/11 Draw 13/5 Sheff Utd 4/1 Get on: Draw Match Special: No goalscorer in the match 10/1 Middlesbrough v Everton Saturday 14th October 15:00 Middlesbrough 13/8 Draw 9/4 Everton 9/5 Get on: Everton Match Special: Andy Johnson to score the only goal of the game 28/1 Portsmouth v West Ham Saturday 14th October 15:00 Portsmouth Evs Draw 9/4 West Ham 10/3 Get on: Portsmouth Match Special: Pedro Mendes to score from outside the area 12/1 Reading v Chelsea Saturday 14th October 17:15 Live on Premiership Plus Reading 13/2 Draw 10/3 Chelsea 1/2 Get on: Chelsea Match Special: Drogba to score the first goal 9/2 Newcastle v Bolton Sunday 15th October 16:00 Live on Sky Newcastle 11/8 Draw 11/5 Bolton 21/10 Get on: Draw Match Special: Match to finish 1-1 11/2 Fulham v Charlton Monday 16th October 20:00 Live on Sky Fulham 11/10 Draw 9/4 Charlton 13/5 Get on: Fulham Match Special: Fulham to score three or more goals 7/2
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Wednesday, October 11, 2006 by Gamblog UK
J Todd, founder of the APCW (association of pro casino webmasters) has issued another video noting some oddities regarding the US online gaming prohibition waffle.
Click the arrow below, to see what Todd's opinion is on the US prohibiting the funding of online gaming accounts by US citizens, regardless of what the average American feels about online gambling in general. Fight The Online Gambling Ban♠ APCW/LAW
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Tuesday, October 10, 2006 by Gamblog UK
The editor of Betting Market.com has been busy today. 4 posts is a record (I think) for gaming industry analyst Niall O'Connor since 1998.
All posts are related somewhat to the US prohibiting banks and financial institutions from processing payments to and from selected online gaming establishmenmts and US punters.
Three more quit US online gambling market.
♠ Three more companies have signalled their intention to quit the US facing online gambling market.
Will Google pull online gambling links?
♠ The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 may see Google pull online gambling links.
Can Neteller really go it alone?
♠ Can Neteller ignore the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006?
Time for gambling execs to shut the door on the US.
♠ Until the climate changes, the best advice would be to give the US a wide bearth once and for all.
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Friday, October 06, 2006 by Gamblog UK
Decent poker video involving playing poker with 4 magicians. Press the arrow to watch. Poker Magicians Video Source: Cheating At Poker Video Spoof
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Thursday, October 05, 2006 by Gamblog UK
J Todd, founder of the APCW (association of pro casino webmasters) has issued an appeal to American online gamblers to stand up and be heard.
Click the arrow below, to see what Todd's opinion is on the US prohibiting the funding of online gaming accounts by US citizens, regardless of what the average American feels about online gambling in general. Todd urges US gamblers to make some noise, here are a few people to contact, to make your voice heard. Fight The Gambling BanABC News(212) 456-7777 CBS News(212) 975-3247 CNN(404) 827-2600 (404) 827-1500 Fox News(212) 301-3000 Los Angeles Times(213) 237-5000 NBC NewsCALL (201) 583-5000 FAX (201) 583-5453 New York Times1-888-NYT-NEWS 1-888-698-6397 Washington Post(703) 469-2798 ♠ The APCW strongly believes you should phone these sources directly. Email and direct mail take too long, and we don't have much time. APCW Appeal To Gamblers - Stop The Ban♠ APCW/LAW
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by Gamblog UK
Where are you now? when I kneed you by Gerry McDonnell Without constructive criticism, improvement is virtually impossible. Armed with this noble philosophy and an in depth knowledge of the beautiful game, I have decided to share a couple of potentially helpful observations with the great minds of the English FA. Steve McClaren is a tool. Macca was a poor manager at club level, he's so far out of his depth on the international stage that it's a miracle he's not suffering from the bends. His original decision to drop Beckham was flawed at best, but when offered the 'get out of jail free' card that was the injuries to Hargreaves and Lennon, he preferred to utilise the 'skills' of Jenas, Downing and Richardson. You simply can't back this England team at odds of 1/10 against a reasonable Macedonian outfit; although I wouldn't dissuade anyone from perming a 1-0 / 2-0 / 3-0 win at a much healthier 7/5. I'm not a great admirer of Peter Crouch as a rule, but thanks to a process of elimination i've reached the shocking conclusion that he's England's most likely goal scorer. Rooney's struggling, Gerrard's wasted on the wing, Downing's a million miles from international class and Lampard would need 29 attempts to score on an 18-30 (stone) holiday. Back Crouch at even money to keep up his incredible recent record. If the England team were picked on current form, Wayne Rooney wouldn't get a look in; he's currently giving the ball away like a ginger schoolboy. Wayne hasn't scored a competitive goal for England for over two years, my initial shock at seeing 8/13 for a Rooney goal soon faded as the realisation dawned that he'll be available at 6/5 not to score. Merry Christmas, everyone. Most people know ELO as the awful 1970's progressive rock outfit, but the ELO ratings are a tool for judging the strengths of international football teams. While FIFA have Scotland as the 34th strongest team in world football, ELO show a more realistic 40th place. Strangely, both differ dramatically from my own personal rating system, where the Sweaties are sandwiched between the Amazonian Forest and Krakatoa in 594th place. France have the luxury of a match against Scotland at Hampden; or 'Le Bye' as it's known in Paris. Value is normally harder to find than a Scotsman at a World Cup but the French are the literal definition at 7/10. Call me paranoid, but before buying lamb from a butcher I always enquire from where the meat originated; you can't be too careful. Wales host Slovakia in their qualifier and an away win is definitely on the cards. The Slovaks have seen off Germany and France over the last year; you should get involved at 2/1. How on earth did the phrase 'the luck of the Irish' originate? An 80 year war for independence must have been grating, running out of potatoes is always annoying and if conclusive proof was needed that luck is not on their side; they landed in the same qualifying group as Germany and the Czech Republic. The Irish have been decimated by injuries for their trip to Cyprus, the draw appeals at 16/5. Northern Ireland's recent win over Spain was perhaps the most unlikely result since Goliath took a dive against David after laying himself heavily on the exchanges. There are many phrases that could adequately describe the 2/7 on offer for a Danish side (who have recently destroyed Poland, Portugal and England) playing at home to Lawrie Sanchez's minnows; I've settled for 'the best bet in the history of gambling'. The Italians have stubbornly refused to win in their campaign so far, somehow knowing they were the last leg of my accer. Italy destroyed Ukraine in a world cup quarter final in the summer, a repeat at 1/2 should not be ruled out. Ever since I watched Prisoner Cell Block H as a child, i've felt a strong affinity with the Aussies. Bea Smith's fight against drugs within the prison system was as inspirational as it was dramatic. Australia face Paraguay in a friendly match live on Eurosport, I like the Aussies at a criminally large 11/10. There's always something happening in the Dutch camp. An injury to Huntelaar forced the Holland manager to offer Van Nistelrooy a return to the International stable, but the Ruud boy told Van Basten where to stick his olive branch, and it wasn't in a local dike. Holland have the quality to stroll to a win in Bulgaria, the 4/5 should be snapped up. The accumulator of the week: This week's accer is so delightful; Paul McCartney is considering reuniting with Heather Mills as a direct result. "I may go out on a limb and ask her to come back," a loved up McCartney may have mused. Slovakia, France, Holland, Denmark and Italy are the teams, the payout is a generous 16/1. The quote of the week: "I don't like diving, football doesn't need it." Wayne Rooney on the curse of the modern game; Sol Campbell is currently looking for a fresh pair of underpants. The lay man: While the fat cats hoover up all the free money laying Northern Ireland at 16/1, us normal Joes can make a profit taking on the Sweaties at 6/1.
Weekend Betting: Wales v Slovakia Saturday 7th October 15:00 Live on Sky Wales 6/4 Draw 11/5 Slovakia 2/1 Selection: Slovakia Suggested bet No bet England v Macedonia Saturday 7th October 17:00 Live on BBC England 1/10 Draw 8/1 Macedonia 33/1 Selection: England Suggested bet England to win either 1-0/2-0/3-0 3 pts @ 7/5Scotland v France Saturday 7th October 17:00 Live on Sky Scotland 9/2 Draw 5/2 France 7/10 Selection: France Suggested bet France to win 2 pts @ 7/10 Cyprus v Rep of Ireland Saturday 7th October 17:30 Cyprus 13/2 Draw 16/5 Rep of Ireland 1/2 Selection: Draw Suggested bet Lay Ireland at 1/2 (to win 2 pts)Bulgaria v Holland Saturday 7th October 19:00 Bulgaria 4/1 Draw 12/5 Holland 4/5 Selection: Holland Suggested bet No betDenmark v Northern Ireland Saturday 7th October 19:00 Live on BBC NI Denmark 2/7 Draw 4/1 Northern Ireland 16/1 Selection: Denmark Suggested bet Denmark to win 7 pts @ 2/7 Italy v Ukraine Saturday 7th October 19:50 Italy 1/2 Draw 14/5 Ukraine 13/2 Selection: Italy Suggested bet No betAustralia v Paraguay (Int'l friendly) Saturday 7th October 10:30 Live on Eurosport Australia 11/10 Draw 9/4 Paraguay 3/1 Selection: Australia Suggested bet No bet
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Wednesday, October 04, 2006 by Gamblog UK
UKbetting buys Ritz Club - EGamingPulse
"Closed down Wednesday, bought Friday.
Online gambling website www.theritzclublondon.com - part of the Barclay brothers' Ritz Hotel empire - has been bought by ukbetting plc.
The Ritz Club announced on Wednesday it was withdrawing from the business because of fears of continued action by US regulators. Authorities in the state of Louisiana this week confirmed they had drawn up warrants for several gaming executives.
According to a statement sent to the London Stock Exchange, ukbetting is paying an undisclosed amount for the site. It will have no connection with either the Ritz Club or Ritz Hotel."
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Tuesday, October 03, 2006 by Gamblog UK
An American's View Of US Online Gaming Prohibition
On September 29, the US Senate passed the Port Security Improvement Act of 2006, sending the online gambling community into a state of shock and disbelief. The act itself is a congressional budget of $3.4 Billion dollars over 5 years to be used for strengthening port security and increasing the safety of the coastal United States.
One has to wonder why a homeland security bill has sent such shockwaves through the world of internet gambling. The reason for this is because the GOP (Republican National Party) tacked on an unrelated bill to the Act titled "The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act". This gambling act was a combination of two other anti-gambling bills that were introduced in the House of Representatives earlier this year, but never voted on by the US Senate.
"Congress has grappled with this issue for 10 years, and during that time we've watched this shadow industry explode," stated Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN).
What Frist should have realized is that the reason they have failed to pass this legislation for an entire decade is because it does not best serve the interest of the American public. Even the US Department of Justice, under former Attorney General Janet Reno, stated that attempts to enforce any such laws in reference to internet wagering were unrealistic and a waste of tax dollars to legislate.
Apparently, all Frist and fellow Congressional Republicans learned is that if a bill is unable to pass on it's own merits, it is time to resort to deception and trickery to get your agenda through. They first attempted this by adding this bill onto a military spending bill which was all but guaranteed to pass due to the escalating violence in Iraq. The Democrats raised strong objections to this unrelated add-on citing abuse of power, forcing the GOP to remove it. It somehow found itself on the Port Security Act, despite the fact that other unrelated add-ons had been rejected.
While the Unlawful Gambling Act does not bring the outdated "Wire Act" (Title 18 US Criminal Code) up to date, in any form, to include the internet as a recognized gambling medium, it does include a couple of specific changes targeted at cracking down on internet wagering.
First and foremost among these changes is a direct approach to the financing of internet gambling. Under the Act, it will be unlawful for financial networks to allow Credit Cards, ACH, Stored Value Cards, electronic checks (debits), electronic funds transfers or physical checks to be used to settle internet gambling debts.
While most US banks have voluntarily blocked these credit card transactions for years, they have opposed the new bill claiming that it puts unfair policing responsibilities on them and will increase the operating costs of their business. Because of this, the Act states the certain financial instruments will be exempt if it is not "reasonably practical" for them to be blocked. This could open a back door for players to fund their internet accounts. The US Federal Reserve has been given 270 days from the signing of the act by President Bush to come up with the policies which will be used. Until that time, anything said on the subject is little more than speculation.
The other notable change in this bill is that it will force Internet Service Providers and hosting companies, upon written notice from the State Attorney General or the US Attorney General, to remove hyperlinks on their servers that point to internet gambling content. This is not only an expensive and ineffective method of dealing with the issue at hand, but could also become a gross violation of the freedom of speech laws that the beloved First Amendment of the US Constitution has so strongly protected for more than 200 years.
Of course, the bill does not exclude all forms of Internet Gambling. Horse Racing, State sanctioned lotteries, Intrastate Gambling, Tribal Gambling and even Fantasy Sports are authorized forms of internet gambling under the bill. This has left many to speculate that special interests are behind the deceptive method of passing the bill, in light of untold millions of dollars from Tribal Casinos and Las Vegas resorts who would like to shut down the offshore competition and retain their monopoly on wagering.
If nothing else, it is easy to see who is already benefiting from the law. Upon news of the Senate vote, shares of internet gambling companies that are publicly traded lost as much as 70% of their value in a single day of trading, and public companies that provide payment processing services to the internet sector lost as much as 40% of their value. In addition to this, some of the largest and most well known gambling sites online have announced that they will no longer accept wagers from the United States.
At the same time, Harrahs Entertainment, the world's largest gaming company, has received an offer for all outstanding shares of stock to be purchased at an unprecedented rate of $81 USD per share. The share price of other leading Las Vegas resorts is also on the rise following news of the bill's passage, and tribal casinos across the country are anxiously awaiting an increase in business from Midwestern gamblers who are willing to make the one hour trip to their nearest casino. It is clear to say that the special interests who lined the pockets of GOP politicians are the clear winners in these early rounds, and it seems that most any internet bookmaker would lay odds in their favor for the long term as well, now that the deck is stacked unfairly in their favor.
The Las Vegas corporations aren't the only ones looking forward to the benefits of the anti-internet crusade. A New York bookie identified only as 'Richie' was quoted as saying "I can't wait to get some of my customers back from that internet." During the alcohol prohibition the US imposed almost a century ago, the mafia was boosted from small time thugs to an international powerhouse. One has to wonder how powerful the gambling prohibition will make the present day mafia, as anyone wishing to bet on sports anywhere other than Las Vegas will have no choice but to use bar room bookies that are almost always paying kick backs to the local mob.
We are also left to wonder where Antigua fits into all of this. In 2004 the island nation filed suit against the United States with the World Trade Organization. At that time the WTO ruled that the US was unfairly infringing on the rights of Antiguan businesses that operate internet gambling sites. The US appealed the ruling and lost again, but to this day they have failed to make any of the changes required by the WTO.
In fact, it seems that they have made a calculated decision to go the opposite direction, with the arrest of multiple foreign nationals that have ties to the Antiguan gambling industry, and now by making a firm rule to block the financial transactions of those businesses. In the usual hypocritical manner, the US now has their own case with the WTO filed against China for infringing on the rights of their auto parts industry. It would seem that they have no problems using the WTO when it is to their advantage, but come to the decision to pretend the organization doesn't exist when a ruling is made against them, not unlike the position the took with the United Nations when decided to go to war in Iraq.
In closing I must say that the entire situation is nothing more than an embarrassment of the American political system. Hiding a special interest bill inside a national security bill is deceptive and underhanded to say the least, and the hypocritical manner in which this administration conducts business is nothing short of distasteful and corrupt. It makes me ashamed to be a citizen of a nation that teaches "honor" and "integrity" to it's youth and then fails to practice what it preaches on any level. It would seem that all anyone cares about in this is lining their pockets as much as possible before the election, despite the billions of dollars being lost by Americans and Europeans in the stock market as the initial fall out from these unethical tactics - and that is only in the first couple of days. We can only guess as to how damaging the long term effects will be.
With all things considered I can only close with two simple words - vote Democrat. Online Gaming Ban Related♠ Where now for the gaming sector?♠ Online gaming in crisis after U.S. ban is passed♠ GOP aims to crack down on Web gambling
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by Gamblog UK
Personally, I think the Americans should have regulated online gambling a decade ago, working in tandem with all other legitimate gaming jurisdictions.
Online gambling could probably have served the World Wide Web with an up-and-running charter for the regulation of websites and internet traffic alltold. Instead, the internet is the virtual international wild wild west. How to regulate and police the WWW across international borders is a biggie.
Online gaming operators via bad affiliates, email spammers, malware manipulation and dare I say blog comment spammers, have helped in a big way to pollute the WWW.
Today is not quite "the reckoning", for online gaming will survive no matter what. That said, you know what? The online gaming industry begged for trouble, and found it in Christian Fundamentalist America. Surprise surprise.
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Monday, October 02, 2006 by Gamblog UK
The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 Analyzed
The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 was rammed through Congress by the Republican leadership in the final minutes before the election period recess. According to Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg (D- NJ), no one on the Senate-House Conference Committee had even seen the final language of the bill. The Act is title VIII of a completely unrelated bill, the Safe Port Act, HR 4954, dealing with port security. It can be found on pages 213 -244 of the Conference Report: |
