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Form Does Not Exist

Form Does NOT exist.

By Daniel Finkelstein


I am occasionally aware that my attitudes to life are not the same as everyone else?s. The time I supported the siting of a McDonalds in a middle-class area, for instance. Or the time I asked Norman St John Stevas for his autograph. (Does it make it better or worse that I was 14 years old?) Yet there are few things that leave me as isolated as my view about form in football.
Form, you see, is the staple of football commentary. They discuss team form and player form all day on talkSPORT. It features in every match report in every paper. Punters in every part of the country are, as you read this piece, drawing circles around ties where the odds look good, because the punter, you see, knows a thing or two about the form of the full back.



And here's my view, the Fink Tank view, form does not exist!. There have been various studies in America about the so-called "hot hand" in competitive sport. It's a phrase that is used to describe basketball players who are doing well in a game. The fans plead for the ball to be passed to a player who is scoring points, the man with the hot hand. The academics say hot hand is a figment of the imagination.

The only US sport where there appears to be any evidence for any sort of "hot hand" is ten-pin bowling. Here, players can very, very briefly be on a roll.

So what about football? Fink Tank has been conducting one of its periodic investigations into the question of form, using different methods to previous occasions.

Dr Matthew Atkinson and Dr Henry Stott began by dividing every Premiership result for the past six years into hits and misses. Hits are games where a side wins and misses are those where they draw or lose. Every team can now be ascribed an average hit rate for the past six years. Chelsea's is the best with a 66.9 per cent hit rate they edge out Arsenal, on 62.3 per cent, and Manchester United, on 61.15 per cent. Sunderlands 9.68 per cent rate is comfortably the worst.

These hit rates tell you how likely it is that a given streak of hits will occur. The higher the hit rate the longer the streaks you might expect to see in the normal course of things. A team who win 50 per cent of the time are quite likely to win in clumps of, say, three, but if they start winning eight on the trot it is time to sit up and take notice.

We then started looking for streaks of hits and misses to see whether any were sufficiently long that, using the strictest possible statistical test, we would judge remarkable. And heres the thing; we did find some. Thirteen in all, including two streaks of Liverpool hits and one streak of misses making them the streakiest side.

So have we been wrong? Is this evidence that form exists after all? We worked up a new test.

We divided each teams results into four categories: prior win and current win; prior win and current non-win; prior non-win and current win; prior non-win and current non-win. Then we applied something called the Chi Square analysis.

Not a single team won a significantly greater proportion of games after wins than after non-wins. There is no hot-hand effect at all. Winning one or more games does not change your chance of winning the next one.

So how to explain those few surprising streaks over the past six years? Not by form, but by lumpiness of easy and difficult fixtures.

Form does not exist. It just doesn?t. Now off you go to the pub and try telling them that before the match. I wish you luck.

Alan Pardew To Be Sacked?

Alan Pardew To Be Sacked?

The bookies now suspect that Alan Pardew is about to be hammered. Pardew is now ODDS-ON to be the next manager to be sacked.

Will Hill offer odds of just 6/4 that Pardew will NOT be West Ham manager by the end of this weekend (Midnight Sunday). You can also get 7/4 that he will lose his job in the period between October 30th and December 31st.

So this means that Pardew is now the 4/7 favourite on next Premiership manager to leave his club.

Odds on other managers are:

Pearce 6/1
Dowie 7/1
Roeder 16/1
Warnock & Southgate 20/1
Coleman 25/1
Allardyce 33/1
Redknapp 33/1

What are your thoughts on this? does Pardew deserve to be sacked? Is it coincidence that West Ham started playing poorly once the Argentinian saga occured? Are there other managers who deserve to be sacked as well?

Walker's Word - 28-30 October 2006


Sunday 29 October
West Ham United vs Blackburn Rovers

A Date With Robbie Williams

A Date With Robbie Williams

The online bookmakers William Hill could lose a whopping 14k after accepting a bet from Frances Ingram who is 33 and from Chester. She has bet 40 pounds at odds of 100/1 that she will go on a date with pop superstar Robbie Williams. She has also placed an extra tenner at 1000/1 that the date will lead to marriage.

It turns out that she has been a huge fan for many years and she goes to most of his concerts as well.

A spokesman for William Hill said "It is one of the more original bets we have ever taken and it is the sort of wager that could become self fulfilling. Everyone loves seeing the bookies taken to the cleaners and I am sure Robbie is no different, if he hears about the bet surely he will ask her out."

I wonder if they would accept a bet on me going on a date with this young lady?

Gambling On A White Christmas Odds

Gambling On A White Christmas Odds

Gambling on whether there will be a white christmas has always been one of the most famous types of bets, and for the first time in 30 years of white christmas betting
William Hill bookmakers will now accept a bet on whether or not snow will fall on Buckingham palace during Christmas day (24 hour period).

Due to the extra long period of warm weather in the UK this year
William Hill are now offering a whopping 8/1 that it will snow on xmas. This is the highest it has been this century.

You can also bet on whether it will snow in any of the following areas via the
William Hill web site.

William Hill Latest White Christmas Betting odds: 3/1 Aberdeen, 7/2 Dublin, 7/2 Glasgow, 7/1 Manchester, 7/1 Birmingham, 7/1 Liverpool, 7/1 Leeds, 8/1 Cardiff, 8/1 Exeter, 8/1 London.

One In A Million Betting

One In A Million Betting


Online bookmakers William hill have told Gamblog.co.uk about some of the most amazing bets that have been placed in their history.

The biggest to date was a gambler who was offered 20,000,000/1 that Elvis Presley would crash a UFO on top of the Loch Ness Monster (This bet was placed by a Glasgow postman).

Another monster gamble was the 15,000,000 offered for the late Screaming Lord Sutch (Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party) to become Prime Minister.

A spokesman from WilliamHill said that the biggest odds they would ever offer would be 76,000,000/1 for the world to end on a specific date. Spokesman Rupert Adams added that "Heaven would be hell for the bookies as no-one would ever lose".

If you fancy a wild gamble then here are some bets that are 1 million to one at William Hill.

**John Prescott to win the 100 metres at the 2012 Olympic games

**The Queen to abdicate and David Beckham to be crowned King of England.

**UK temperature to hit 100F - on Christmas Day (2006).

**A MANNED expedition to Mars to arrive and discover the Loch Ness Monster there.

**UFO containing intelligent extra-terrestrial life forms to land outside Number 10 Downing Street and abduct current PM.

**Tony Blair and David Cameron to contest a Wimbledon Final.

**Pete Doherty to become the next Archbishop of Canterbury.

**President George Bush to be called up for the Ashes


If you fancy having a gamble on any of the above or perhaps a more serious bet, then you will need an account with one of the following bookmakers (Sports books)


Bloggers Wanted


Bloggers Wanted

Gamblog is growing by the day and we are now looking for fresh new talent to improve the blog even further.



If you are knowledgable in any of the subjects below then please contact us via the contact address at the bottom of the page, or leave a comment with your contact e-mail address:



*Gambling

*Poker
*Casinos
*Sports Gambling


We are aiming to give a monthly cash prize for the best post, and it is a great way to get yourself known in the industry. So if you fancy having your thoughts, rants and tips seen around the world then contact us today.

Jermain Defoe Bite


Jermain Defoe Bite

For a player that has shown no bite all season I was amazed this morning when I heard that Jermain Defoe allegedly tried to take a chunk out of Javier Mascheranos arm.

Even more amazingly Martin Jol claimed that "It is part of the game. They kicked him three times from behind in 10 minutes and he wanted to show his frustration in a nice, comical way."

If you take a look at the photo to the left everything seems ok at first. But I have a sneaking suspicion that he may be munching on a nice juicy bit of arm in that photo.

Hopefully Spurs can find some bite upfront in the near future or it could be a long season for them.

Marijuana Betting

While the Americans attempt to ban online gambling for it's residents, those very same gamblers are laying bets online regarding the legalization of marijuana. Clearly, some American bong-toking politicians have been smoking too much skunk weed.


Marijuana
American War Against Marijuana
Legalise Cannabis Alliance
Marijuana Post
Cannabis.com
Sensi Seeds

Horseracing On The Motorway - Italy

Illegal Horseracing up and down the motorway is the new craze I hear. Apparently mafia folk in Messina - Southern Italy, have been organising horse races on open streets and motorways. Traffic grinds to a halt, some drivers stop to watch, hence everyone stops, stuck in the traffic watching horseracing at 7am.

Mopeds and motorcars surround these illegal horse races, which are actually more like Harness Racing (horse and driver in a cart), than your traditional horseracing itself. The police say they are prevented from making arrests or stopping the races because of the cavalcade. The races have been filmed on traffic cameras instead.

Horses Drugged To Race On Motorways
Most worrisome is the Messina police say the horses are doped up to the hind quarters on many drugs to get them to run. Presumably the horses would rather not race down concrete roads and motorways, dragging a bloke in a cart with an equine whip around, surrounded by a bunch of mad scooter riders and horn beeping mafioso in Fiat's.

Motorway Race Betting?
I have seen no reports as yet that bets have been placed on this Italian motorway horseracing thing. Odds on if motorway racing is made into a legal sport, Ladbrokes will price up a market within the hour.

Walker's Word - 21-22 October 2006

Weekend Football Betting - Oct, 21, 22, 2006

Israeli Horseracing Betting Suspended

Source - Betting Called Off At First Israel Horseracing Meeting - BBC

Ladbrokes To Challenge Dutch Court Ruling

Asian Gambling Syndicate Winning Big

See How Quick F! Cars Are

Formula 1 versus a normal Mercedes is not a fair race. It was still interesting anyway.


Hat tip - Just How Fast is a F1 Car? - Burnley Wallet

Walker's Word - 14-16 October 2006

Weekend Soccer Betting - Oct 14, 15, 2006

Online Gambling Ban Video

J Todd, founder of the APCW (association of pro casino webmasters) has issued another video noting some oddities regarding the US online gaming prohibition waffle.

Click the arrow below, to see what Todd's opinion is on the US prohibiting the funding of online gaming accounts by US citizens, regardless of what the average American feels about online gambling in general.

Fight The Online Gambling Ban
APCW/LAW

Betting Market Record Posts

The editor of Betting Market.com has been busy today. 4 posts is a record (I think) for gaming industry analyst Niall O'Connor since 1998.

All posts are related somewhat to the US prohibiting banks and financial institutions from processing payments to and from selected online gaming establishmenmts and US punters.

Three more quit US online gambling market.
♠ Three more companies have signalled their intention to quit the US facing online gambling market.

Will Google pull online gambling links?
♠ The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 may see Google pull online gambling links.

Can Neteller really go it alone?
♠ Can Neteller ignore the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006?

Time for gambling execs to shut the door on the US.
♠ Until the climate changes, the best advice would be to give the US a wide bearth once and for all.

Don't Play Poker With Magicians

Decent poker video involving playing poker with 4 magicians. Press the arrow to watch.

Poker Magicians Video Source: Cheating At Poker Video Spoof

APCW Appeal To Gamblers - Stop The Ban

J Todd, founder of the APCW (association of pro casino webmasters) has issued an appeal to American online gamblers to stand up and be heard.

Click the arrow below, to see what Todd's opinion is on the US prohibiting the funding of online gaming accounts by US citizens, regardless of what the average American feels about online gambling in general.

Todd urges US gamblers to make some noise, here are a few people to contact, to make your voice heard.APCW Appeal To Gamblers - Stop The Ban
APCW/LAW

Weekend Football Betting - sat, Oct 5, 2006

UKbetting Buys Ritz Club Casino

UKbetting buys Ritz Club - EGamingPulse

"Closed down Wednesday, bought Friday.

Online gambling website www.theritzclublondon.com - part of the Barclay brothers' Ritz Hotel empire - has been bought by ukbetting plc.

The Ritz Club announced on Wednesday it was withdrawing from the business because of fears of continued action by US regulators. Authorities in the state of Louisiana this week confirmed they had drawn up warrants for several gaming executives.

According to a statement sent to the London Stock Exchange, ukbetting is paying an undisclosed amount for the site. It will have no connection with either the Ritz Club or Ritz Hotel."

American View Of US Online Gaming Prohibition

Online Gaming Ban Related
Where now for the gaming sector?
Online gaming in crisis after U.S. ban is passed
GOP aims to crack down on Web gambling

Online Gambling Prohibition Opinions Blogged

Personally, I think the Americans should have regulated online gambling a decade ago, working in tandem with all other legitimate gaming jurisdictions.

Online gambling could probably have served the World Wide Web with an up-and-running charter for the regulation of websites and internet traffic alltold. Instead, the internet is the virtual international wild wild west. How to regulate and police the WWW across international borders is a biggie.

Online gaming operators via bad affiliates, email spammers, malware manipulation and dare I say blog comment spammers, have helped in a big way to pollute the WWW.

Today is not quite "the reckoning", for online gaming will survive no matter what. That said, you know what? The online gaming industry begged for trouble, and found it in Christian Fundamentalist America. Surprise surprise.

Lawyers View Of US Online Gambling Ban Archived

Betting Odds For Next WBA Manager

WBA are looking for another manager after sacking ex England team captain Bryan Robson.

I have absolutely no idea who will be the next Baggies manager. Ladbrokes make Steve Cotterill the even money favourite. Dave Jones, the current manager of highflying Cardiff is joint second favorite at 4/1. I would strike that name, Jones is going nowhere right now.

Alan Curbishley is quoted as a 16/1 chance. Curb's is in every next manager betting market at the moment. I read elswhere pure speculation that the Norwich job interests the ex Charlton manager. David O'leary is out of work. Possibly a lively high-priced outsider at 16/1. The same goes for Graeme Souness at 18/1, and Glenn Hoddle at 20's.

Sven Goran Erikkson is the rag at 100/1. That would be because he's on 13grand a day to do nothing as the ex England manager. The sooner Sven takes a job, the better. The thing is, 91k a week is more than anyone will pay him to start work, so don't expect Sven to be any lower than 100/1 to take any manager's job in the foreseeable future.

Gambling Deaths

One man was shot dead during an arguement over a videopoker machine in Lincoln City, USA. A one Michael Segal pulled a gun and shot a Mr Delmer Sisk several times. Mr Sisk died at the scene. Mr Segal is in police custody.

One man drowned trying to escape during a police raid on illegal gamblers and others were injured, including a policeman in Bangladesh.

Gamblog Comment :: Gambling is serious business, but it should not mean life or death. Rule 1 of gambling - "never bet more than you can afford to lose". I think your life comes into that category.