N.Korea Missile Launch Market Debacle

Monday, July 31, 2006

The TradeSports North Korean Missile Prediction Market Debacle is an odd one. The terms of the prediction market contract have been met, but the end decision is a dumb one. Tradesports should pay both ends of the market from their own funds as pennance, then chalk it up as experience.

North Korea Nuclear Missile Prediction Market
The wager was if the North Korea would test a nuclear missile by 11:59:59pm ET on 31st July 2006, which the N.Koreans did. Those that bet a test missile launch WOULD take place, LOST the bet.

Why? Because the US Department of Defense never officially confirmed the missile launches took place, even though they commented on the tests in general terms.
Gamblog Comment :: Now how stupid is that? I will endeavour to learn all I can about Prediction Markets, but if this market result is anything to go by, it might not be a good idea. I'd get more sense of a taking on a fair wager playing virtual coin toss with Senator Kyl, rather than dealing with Tradesports.com silly prediction market contract stipulations, that defeat the object of gambling and winning fair and square.

If this is the best Tradesports can do, the Americans might aswell ban online gambling and be done with it.

# References
N.Korea Missile Test Bet Debacle
♠ Tradesports Got It Wrong (smart money)

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