Horseracing Selections - Carlisle, 21 July 2006
Carlisle, 21 July 2006
2:10 Architects Plus Maiden Auction Stakes
Princess Ileana holds all the aces here and can score from Startolini and Wanchai Night. The Karl Burke-trained selection has improved for three starts so far and looks to have been found a winning opportunity here. Her Windsor run behind Pelican Key last time reads very well in the context of this race, her yard is still in form and she can score. Startolini has also taken well to racing but has not achieved anything like as much as the selection in three starts to date and was thrashed when stepped up to 6f last time. In theory she should be better over further, but she has a bit more to prove before becoming the subject of our hard-earned. Wanchai Night has run green on a couple of starts so far but should be getting the hang of things by now and we'd expect her to be on the premises this time around, but Princess Ileana has her opportunity ehre and can get off the mark.
2:45 Donleys Claiming Stakes
A very ordinary claimer that should not take much winning and we will side with Sualda to do just that, with the other trio battling for runners-up money. Sualda has 7lb and more in hand of his opponents on official ratings and should confirm that. Virtually all of his eight wins have been at around this trip and on fast ground, and this looks to be his best opportunity for a year to pick up a win. Karl Burke tries Evolution Ex over this tyrip for the first time and it will be interesting to see how he goes, but he's not been in the best of form lately despite his trainer being so, and with little to suggest that 12f is his trip we oppose. Buddy Brown is another out of form individual but with Northern Dancer in his pedigree he is worth a try at this trip, while Regency Red has been running well in lesser company but may be able to claim second place if the other pair continue in ordinary vein. However, Sualda has the right credentials to take this.
3:15 Cubby Construction Handicap
This could be an interesting tussle between Prince Picasso and Farne Island, with Jill Dawson and Mambo Sun also worth consideration. We are going to side with Prince Picasso, who comes here shouldering a penalty for a comfortable success over 10f at Brighton on similarly fast ground last week. The step up beyond a mile produced a career best effort and there is every reason to suggest that, coming from the connections he does, there will be a fair bit more improvement in him. Farne Island had very little to beat at Beverley on Tuesday but he did the job very well. He runs from the same mark here and is due to go up by 4lb from tomorrow so he looks set to be closely involved. He beat Mambo Sun the other day and that rival is 5lb better off for a neck so has got a good chance of turning the tables if he is again able to dictate the pace. Jill Dawson steps up beyond a mile for the first time but is a half-sister to staying winner Jack Dawson and can she may be able to improve on previous efforts and take a hand here, but Prince Picasso looks well placed again and can score.
3:50 Weatherbys Insurance Burgh Barony Plate Handicap
Key Time is sent out quickly again by Sir Mark Prescott and looks booked for the hat-trick here, with Lodgician and Mister Arjay the likely main dangers. The selection has been placed to win twice over two miles just lately and attempts to defy a 6lb penalty for staying on strongly to score at Beverley on Tuesday. He is due to go up a conservative 2lb from tomorrow, but we think he is capable of shouldering the penalty and going in again here. Lodgician comes from another in form yard, that of John Quinn. There was nothing wrong with his c&d success last time out, but he faced nothing like the strength in opposition of Key Time and having to shoulder 7lb more against him will make this a stiffish test. Mister Arjay was well beaten by the selection at Beverely and despite better terms it would be a bit of a surprise if he were good enough to beat Key Time, who gets the nod.
4:25 Asd Metal Services Carlisle Handicap
Ron Barr has been getting a nice tune out of Pay Time just lately and the mare looks capable of another success here, with Carnivore and Attacca the main threats in opposition. The selection did us a good turn at Catterick last week when getting out from a plum draw to score over a similar trip. She loves fast ground and the manner of her success suggests that she is capable of repeating the dose here under a penalty. Carnivore has gone up 7lb for staying on strongly to win over this trip at Musselburgh last time and should not be too far away again, coming from a in form yard and with this 7f looking ideal. Attacca is 1lb below his last winning mark and also comes into calculations as one who loves this trip and lightning fast ground, so don't discount him, but preference is for the in-form Pay Time, so go and form a queue.
4:55 Baines Wilson Maiden Stakes
A poor maiden which rests between Grand Opera, Spinning and Naval Attache, and we will take a chance on Spinning. The selection hails from the in-form yard of David Barron and is worth a small punt here now that he is tried on fast ground for the first time, given that he is by fast ground lover Pivotal. The step up in trip is a bit of an unknown, but there are doubts about all the others and we will side with him. Grand Opera is the one to beat on official ratings but we should not get too carried away with that given this marked drop in trip. He has been ponderous at the start a couple of times and he won't be able to afford to do that here with less time to get into the race. Naval Attache is another dropping in trip and the way he has been failing to really get home over a mile suggests that this could be in his favour. Even so, he would have to improve a signifiacnt amount to beat the toher pair and we will chance Spinning to take the prize.
5:25 Ross Lloyd Ltd Handicap
The most competitive heat on the card to conclude matters with Aegean Dancer, Rudi's Pet, Parkside Pursuit and Tomthevic all holding claims and we will just side with Rudi's Pet to score. 'Dandy' Nicholls' gelding can string more than one win together and this looks to be his chance to do so. He kept on strongly to score at Musselburgh last time on good ground, but acts when it is very quick and despite a penalty he looks just about capable of landing this. Parkside Pursuit is the inmate of another 'sprint king' in Milton Bradley and won in his turn at Warwick last month. He got closest in three tries since at Folkestone last time but is probably just a bit too high in the weights for comfort at present. The same can be said of stablemate Tomthevic, who has not won since 2003 and despite a drop in the weights he looks a bit too slow to win, while Aegean Dancer should again go very well but is going up in the weights for good performances in defeat. But Rudi's Pet hit form last time and is taken to follow up.
