The Football Statistics Association ran an experiment via 4,000 of their members to see if "
the wisdom of crowds" can predict the outcome of the 2006 World Cup finals.
Experiment -
This is a global experiment to see if the Wisdom of Crowds can be used to predict the outcome of The World Cup.
Result - On the eve of the tournament, we can reveal that
England will reach the World Cup Final. Well, that's if our Wisdom of Fans experiment proves to be correct. We sent out an open invitation to viewers of our
11v11.co.uk web site to give us their prediction for the World Cup. They each had 100 percentage points to be allocated amongst the competing nations as they saw fit.
The Wisdom of Fans works on the theory that groups of random people can provide remarkably accurate information, and usually outperform individual experts.
Percentages -
Over 4,000 votes later, the result is that - not too surprisingly - the 2006 World Cup winners are predicted to be
Brazil with 32.09% of the aggregate vote.
It's England who come in second at 15.79%. The semi-finalists are tipped as Argentina (12.67%) and Germany (11.62%).
The other would-be quarter-finalists are a European quartet of Italy (9.67%), France (8.36%), Holland (8.03%) and Spain (6.35%).
All 32 nations receive some supports but it's Saudi Arabia who are the rank-outsiders with 1.61%
Results Table by Percentage
32.09% Brazil
15.79% England
12.67% Argentina
11.26% Germany
9.67% Italy
8.36% France
8.03% Holland
6.35% Spain
6.00% Czech Republic
5.80% Portugal
4.30% Croatia
4.24% Ecuador
4.02% United States
3.88% Sweden
3.62% Australia
3.26% Poland
3.23% Ivory Coast
3.22% Korean Republic
3.20% Mexico
3.17% Ghana
3.12% Trinidad & Tobago
3.05% Iran
2.98% Togo
2.97% Japan
2.76% Angola
2.14% Ukraine
2.03% Costa Rica
2.03% Tunisia
1.92% Switzerland
1.87% Serbia & Montenegro
1.79% Paraguay
1.61% Saudi Arabia
Posted at 9:14 PM, Monday, June 12, 2006
2 Comments
The crowd are local village idiots?
:)
If England and Brazil both win their groups (which seems likely) then they WILL NOT meet in the final.
Instead they are drawn to clash in a semi-final if both sides get that far.
The thought crossed my mind to check to see the route to the final for England and Brazil.
I figured not to and to leave the stats to the statisticians, who have not exactly stuck their necks out too far going for the first and second favourites in the betting pre the finals..